Saturday, March 31, 2018

The Closing Bell


The Closing Bell

3/30/18

Statistical Summary

   Current Economic Forecast
                       
2018 estimates (revised)

Real Growth in Gross Domestic Product                          1.5-2.5%
                        Inflation                                                                          +1.5-2%
                        Corporate Profits                                                                10-15%

   Current Market Forecast
           
            Dow Jones Industrial Average

                                    Current Trend (revised):  
                                    Short Term Trading Range                      21691-26646
Intermediate Term Uptrend                     13057-29262
Long Term Uptrend                                  6410-29847
                                               
2018     Year End Fair Value                                   13800-14000

            Standard & Poor’s 500

                                    Current Trend (revised):
                                    Short Term Uptrend                                     2461-3223
                                    Intermediate Term Uptrend                         1254-3068
                                    Long Term Uptrend                                     905-2963
                                                           
2018 Year End Fair Value                                       1700-1720         


Percentage Cash in Our Portfolios

Dividend Growth Portfolio                          59%
            High Yield Portfolio                                     55%
            Aggressive Growth Portfolio                        55%

Economics/Politics
           
The Trump economy is providing a slight upward bias to equity valuations.   The data flow this week was weighed very slightly to the negative: above estimates: weekly mortgage/purchase applications, February pending home sales, month to date retail chain store sales, January Case Shiller home price index, weekly jobless claims, February Chicago Fed national activity index; below estimates: March consumer confidence and consumer sentiment, March Dallas and Richmond Feds’ manufacturing index, March Chicago PMI, the February trade deficit; in line with estimates: revised fourth quarter GDP growth, the price index and corporate profits, February personal income and spending.


  The primary indicators were neutral:  revised fourth quarter GDP growth, price index and corporate profits (0) and February personal income and spending (0).  Given the tally of the primary indicators, the call is neutral.  Score: in the last 129 weeks, forty-four were positive, sixty negative and twenty-five neutral.

While this week’s cumulative data was neutral, it puts something of a damper on the notion that last week’s very positive results plus the blowout jobs report three weeks ago could be signaling that the US economic growth rate is improving.  I remain open to the possibility though there seems little reason at present for a revision of my forecast.  My current thinking remains that (1) the initial surge in economic activity following the tax bill was more likely attributable to post hurricane/wild fire recovery spending than the much touted jump in wages/cap ex spending and, thus, (2) the tax bill will not be proven fairer, simpler or pro-growth.

The overseas stats were negative: mixed out of Europe, disappointing from Japan   ---so a second week of sloppy numbers from the EU.  As you know, Europe has been the bright spot in the global economy; and two weeks in a row of poor numbers don’t make a trend. Japan, on the other hand, has been struggling for growth; clearly, it still is. 

Washington was fairly quiet this week---thank God for small favors.  However, trade remained center stage.  The good news is that the US and South Korea reached a trade agreement, which didn’t alter the prior agreement all that much but it was slight win for the US; and, more importantly, it removed the potential for a trade war with the South Koreans.  There is a picture starting to develop here that Trump’s bark dwarfs his ultimate bite---meaning the odds of achieving acceptable agreements with other trading partners are going up.  That too is good news. 

The bad news is that the Donald keeps pouring in on with China.  This time threatening to limit Chinese investments in the US.  Of course, having just said that his ‘art of deal’ tactics involve talking loudly and carrying a small stick, my hope is that the US can reach an accord with China.

The other item worth mentioning is Trump’s reintroduction of his infrastructure plan.  Now, as it was when first presented, congressional sources say that it is dead on arrival.

Our (new and improved) forecast:

A pick up in the long term secular economic growth rate based on less government regulation.  As a result, I raised our economic growth forecast. Many had hoped that this increase in secular growth could be further augmented by pro-growth fiscal policies including repeal of Obamacare, enactment of tax reform and infrastructure spending and a fairer trading agenda.  The bad news is that it appears the positive effects of the tax bill may have dwindled; and at the moment, there is no cause, in my opinion, to assume it will lead to improvement in the long term secular economic growth.  Indeed, my original assessment of it may prove spot on, i.e. the bill was not fairer, simpler or pro-growth.  The good news is that while Trump’s approach to free/fair trade is stomach churning, to date, his bark is proving much worse than his bite and it seems to be yielding positive results (South Korea).  If he can achieve the same kind outcome with NAFTA, the EU and China, then it would be a definite plus for economic growth.  At this point, our forecast remains economic growth at a slightly better long tem secular rate but still below historical standards.

       The negatives:

(1)   a vulnerable global banking system.  Nothing new this week except this new bit of information on the subprime mortgage market.
           
More (medium):

(2)   fiscal/regulatory policy. 

Our ruling class did little to mess with our lives this week as they prepared for the Easter Holiday.

We did receive news on trade, some good, some bad.  I don’t really have anything to add to my comments above.

Friday, the Donald made a speech touting his infrastructure spending proposal [which he had introduced months ago].  It went nowhere then and apparently, it is going nowhere now.  So I assume the rhetoric is largely about the November elections. 

But just to reiterate my take---all other things being equal, a real infrastructure bill [as opposed to Obama’s which was a welfare bill in disguise] is good news for the economy.  It creates jobs and is an investment in America.  However, when the national debt is at record levels [as it is now], financing it [i.e. creating more debt], at the same time as taxes are being cut is a burden on the economy because the cost of servicing that debt eats up any benefits from growth created by the tax cuts and infrastructure spending.

[Geeks note: since any infrastructure spending will have to be paid for by increasing the national debt, the Treasury has four sources of investors to buy that debt: {i} consumers, who are at present saving at an historically low rate.  But assume they increase their savings.  That means that they decrease their spending, meaning GDP growth slows, {ii} corporate America which would have to use funds that would otherwise be used for capital spending [i.e. future profit growth], wages [see above] or dividends and buybacks [also see above], {iii} foreigners, who would have to use dollars to buy Treasuries; and the only way to get dollars is by the US running a trade deficit which Trump is trying to lessen, or {iv} the Fed prints money and puts yet more debt on its balance sheet.  While that has worked so far, at some point, it becomes highly inflationary].

Again, you know my bottom line on this score.  Too much debt stymies economic growth even if it partly comes from a tax cut or infrastructure spending.  And a rapidly expanding deficit and a tumbling dollar are not just bad for the country, they may push the Fed to be more aggressive in its tightening policy. 

A trade war is a lose/lose proposition.

(3)   the potential negative impact of central bank money printing:  The key point here is that [a] the Fed has inflated bank reserves far beyond any comparable level in history and [b] while this hasn’t been an economic problem to date, {i} it still has to withdraw all those reserves from the system without creating any disruptions---a task that I regularly point out it has proven inept at in the past and {ii} it has created or is creating asset bubbles in the stock market as well as in the auto, student and mortgage loan markets.  

It was also a very quiet week for the Fed.  But the ECB was a busy little beaver, jacking up its bond purchases at the first sign of Market turmoil---and everyone thinks that it will begin tapering this year.

The bottom line is that the Fed has no good alternatives.  It has left itself in the same place as every other Fed in the history of Fed; that is, it has waited too long to begin normalizing monetary policy and now, [a] if there is an increase in inflation, it must either hold to its dovish ways and risk a big spike in inflation or begin to tighten policy more aggressively and risk trashing the Markets or [b] if the US economy slips into recession, it has few policy to tools to help alleviate its magnitude; and Markets don’t like recessions.  

(4)   geopolitical risks:  It appears that progress is being made in the attempt to rein in the Kim Jung Un regime.  Un met with the Chinese this week and professed to be ready to denuclearize.  In addition, the North and South Koreans are set to meet April 27 and the US and North Koreans sometime in May.  If all this takes place and Un is ready to get rid of his nukes and stop exporting weapons technology to others, then certainly this would be a major positive.  But I repeat my words of caution---we have seen this movie before; so it would be folly to assume that the ending is any different.

(5)   economic difficulties around the globe.  The international data this week was negative.

[a] March EU business confidence fell for the third month in a row; February German unemployment hit a record low,

[b] March Japanese CPI and industrial production were below expectations while unemployment was above.

The bottom line remains the same: Europe gaining strength, though last two weeks don’t help that view.  Japan may be improving as is China, but again this week’s numbers from Japan don’t reflect that.
                       
            Bottom line:  the US economy growth rate may be faltering once again despite the positive impact on its long term secular growth rate brought on by increasing deregulation, the better performance of the EU economy and rising business and consumer sentiment.

On the other hand, if the success of the trade negotiations with South Korea are an indication that Trump’s ‘art of the deal’ negotiating style can produce further positive outcomes with NAFTA, the EU and China, then a fairer trading regime would almost certainly be a plus for the long term secular economic growth rate.  ‘If’ being the operative word, though the road to achieving any success could a rough one.

That leaves the larger fiscal issue (for me) which we know with certainty; that is, how the original tax cut, a second proposed new improved tax cut, increased deficit spending and a potentially big infrastructure bill will impact economic growth and inflation.  As you know, I have an opinion: at the current level of the national debt, a bigger deficit/debt=slower growth; higher deficit spending=inflation, even if they are the result of a tax cut and/or infrastructure spending.

It is important to note that the negative here is not the impact that tax cuts and increasing spending have on economic growth---which, in my opinion, are both positive and negative.  It is Fed policy.  The central bank has created a no win situation for itself: [a] if it does nothing and economy accelerates, it risks inflation. In fact, if LIBOR rates continue to blowout and begin to impact US rates, the Fed may not even have this option, [b] if does nothing and the economy stumbles, it has few policy measures available to combat any economic weakening, [c] if it moves forward with the unwind of QE, it will begin the unwinding of the mispricing and misallocation of global assets.  Whatever the outcome, it will only confirm what I have said repeatedly in these pages---the Fed has never in its history managed the transition from easy to normal monetary policy correctly and it won’t this time either.

The Market-Disciplined Investing
         
  Technical

The indices (DJIA 24103, S&P 2640) jumped yesterday, experienced the usual huge intraday volatility but closed well off of their intraday highs.    Volume was down; breadth improved, but not as much as I had expected.  Both of the Averages closed within very short term downtrends, below their 100 day moving averages (now resistance) but above their 200 day moving averages.  The Dow finished in a short term trading range but in intermediate and long term uptrends.  The S&P is in uptrends across all timeframes.  In short, the short term technical picture is a bit cloudy; but longer term, the assumption is that equity prices will continue to rise.
               
                FANG stocks and the Averages (short):

The VIX was fell 13 ½  %, but remained in a very short term uptrend, above its 100 and 200 day moving averages and the lower boundary of its short term trading range---suggesting volatility will stay with us. 

The long Treasury continued its strong month long bounce off the lower boundary of its long term uptrend, establishing a very short term uptrend.  It is still below its 100 (but near) and 200 day moving averages and in an intermediate term downtrend.  So the trend remains down though an initial challenge appears close.  What the fundamentals are behind the strong uptrend, I haven’t a clue.  Though I have a lot of choices---either the economy is weakening (lower interest rates) or there is a negative event coming (safety trade) or, as a trader friend suggests, there is a huge short squeeze going on.

More on LIBOR (medium):

The dollar was down slightly, finishing below its 100 and 200 day moving averages and in an intermediate term downtrend.  Most important, UUP has traded in a very tight range for two months, which is not usual when bonds are moving big directionally.

GLD edged up but has still given back almost all of last week’s gains.  And that makes no sense in a rising bond market (lower rates).  The good news is that it held above (just barely) the lower boundary of its short term uptrend as well as its 100 and 200 day moving averages.
               
Bottom line: the technicals of the equity market point higher for the long term.  Near term direction is in question; but the Averages have plenty of support at lower levels.  It will take a lot more technical damage before I question whether or not this bull market is over. 

The pin action in TLT, UUP and GLD remains confusing.
           

Fundamental-A Dividend Growth Investment Strategy

The DJIA and the S&P are well above ‘Fair Value’ (as calculated by our Valuation Model).  However, ‘Fair Value’ has risen based on a new set of regulatory policies which will lead to improvement in the historically low long term secular growth rate of the economy.  A further increase could come if Trump’s drive for fairer trade is successful. 

Unfortunately, the recent decline in the strength of economic activity suggests that any benefit from enhanced corporate spending stemming from the tax bill was short lived.  Plus neither a second round of tax cuts nor additional infrastructure spending, in my opinion, will improve the outlook for economic growth, given the current stratospheric level of debt.  

This week, trade remained center stage with the South Koreans agreeing to a new trade settlement.  If the pattern of these negotiations (bark real loud, extract some concessions and claim victory) are repeated with NAFTA, the EU and China, then this whole process will be proven successful and pro-growth, though I am sure many wish it was a lot less nerve wracking. 

On the other hand, Trump threatened more actions against China.  As I have said before, I support Trump’s effort to reign in the Chinese pirating of US intellectual property; and I garner hope from the South Korean example that negotiations will prove successful.  However, I am sure that they will be stomach churning---which the Market is not going to like.  It will like even less a lack of success.

  The danger of subdued growth and higher inflation was exacerbated this week by the Trump reintroduction of his infrastructure bill.  I needn’t be repetitive here; but my bottom line is that the budget deficit and national debt are already too high to render either deficit spending or tax cuts an effective growth stimulant.  Making them bigger will only make things worse.  In short, in my opinion, Street estimates for economic and profit growth are too optimistic and valuations will have to adjust when that reality becomes manifest.

Even if I am wrong on all the above points, I don’t believe that a more rapidly improving economy justifies current valuations and may even exacerbate the real problem (in my opinion) facing the Markets---which is the need for the Fed to normalize monetary policy.  If improved growth led to a continuing tightening of policy, ending QE, it, in my opinion, would not be good for the Markets, since they are the only thing that benefitted from QE. 

Bottom line: the assumptions on long term secular growth in our Economic Model have improved as a result of a new regulatory regime.  In addition, if Trump can repeat the South Korean tariff negotiations model, then a fairer trade regime will also have a positive impact on secular growth.  Finally, I could be wrong and there still may be a chance that the effects of the tax bill could further increase that growth assumption. 

Unfortunately, the numbers suggest otherwise.  Even worse, the recently passed spending bill along with the promises of a second round of tax cuts and infrastructure spending will, in my opinion, inhibit growth. I believe that more debt will restrain not enhance growth and will likely create inflationary pressures which will have to be dealt with by the Fed, sooner or later.  In any case, I continue to believe that the current Street narrative is overly optimistic---which means Street models ultimately will have to lower their consensus of Fair Value for equities. 

Our Valuation Model assumptions may be changing depending on the aforementioned economic tradeoffs impacting our Economic Model.  However, even if tax reform proves to be a positive, the math in our Valuation Model still shows that equities are way overpriced.  That math is simply: the P/E now being paid for the historical long term secular growth rate of earnings is far above the norm.

                As a long term investor, with equity valuations at historical highs, I would want to own some cash in my Portfolio and, if I didn’t have any, I would use any price strength to sell a portion of my winners and all of my losers.
               
DJIA             S&P

Current 2018 Year End Fair Value*              13860             1711
Fair Value as of 3/31/18                                  13375            1650
Close this week                                               24103            2640

* Just a reminder that the Year End Fair Value number is based on the long term secular growth of the earning power of productive capacity of the US economy not the near term   cyclical influences.  The model is now accounting for somewhat below average secular growth for the next 3 to 5 years. 

The Portfolios and Buy Lists are up to date.


Steve Cook received his education in investments from Harvard, where he earned an MBA, New York University, where he did post graduate work in economics and financial analysis and the CFA Institute, where he earned the Chartered Financial Analysts designation in 1973.  His 50 years of investment experience includes institutional portfolio management at Scudder. Stevens and Clark and Bear Stearns, managing a risk arbitrage hedge fund and an investment banking boutique specializing in funding second stage private companies.  Through his involvement with Strategic Stock Investments, Steve hopes that his experience can help other investors build their wealth while avoiding tough lessons that he learned the hard way.








Thursday, March 29, 2018

The Morning Call--The Market is the story


The Morning Call

3/29/18

The Market
         
    Technical

The indices (DJIA 23848, S&P 2605) declined slightly yesterday, following the recent pattern of opening up, experiencing huge volatility intraday, then selling off  at the end of the day (see link below).  Volume was flat; breadth was mixed.  Both of the Averages closed below their 100 day moving averages (now resistance) but above their 200 day moving averages (though not by much.  I thought that it would be challenged yesterday, but wasn’t.  A hint of good news) and within very short term downtrends.  The Dow finished in a short term trading range but in intermediate and long term uptrends.  The S&P is in uptrends across all timeframes.  In short, the technical picture has gone from solidly up to a bit cloudy.

                And:

The VIX was up 1 ¼  %, ending in a very short term uptrend, above its 100 and 200 day moving averages and the lower boundary of its short term trading range---suggesting a more volatility. 

The long Treasury continued its strong month long bounce off the lower boundary of its long term uptrend.  It is still below its 100 (but near) and 200 day moving averages and in an intermediate term downtrend.  So the trend remains down but any further advance will start to put that in jeopardy.  In other words, investors are developing conviction that either the economy is weakening (lower interest rates) or there is a negative event coming (safety trade) or, as a trader friend suggests, there is a huge short squeeze going on.

            A poor seven year Treasury auction (short):

            Yield curve flattens further (short):

The dollar was another 1%---which makes sense if there is a safety trade issue, but not if there is a weakening economy.  Its chart remains ugly, with UUP trading below its 100 and 200 day moving averages and in an intermediate term downtrend.

GLD was pounded, down 1 ¼%, giving up almost all of last week’s gains.  And that makes no sense if either rates continue lower or there is a safety trade issue.  It is above its 100 and 200 day moving averages and within a short term uptrend---though it is approaching the lower boundary.
               
Bottom line: investors once again ‘sold the rips’ yesterday.  However, while the technicals of the equity market still point higher for the long term, cracks in this thesis remain. So near term direction is in question.  No matter how you feel about stock valuation, I don’t think that this is a time to be committing cash unless it is in a company whose stock has been decimated (down 30-50%).

The pin action in TLT, UUP and GLD remains confusing.
           
    Fundamental

       Headlines

            Yesterday’s economic stats were weighed slightly to the upside: February pending home sale and weekly mortgage/purchase applications were a plus, revised third quarter GDP growth, price index and corporate profits were mixed and the February trade deficit was a negative.

            The news flow continues to slow ahead of the Easter holiday.  The only headline of substance was a trade agreement with the South Koreans---which, to be sure, is a positive.  As a bonus, a peace process is moving along.  A meeting has been scheduled between the North and South Koreans on 4/27 and the US is set to meet the North Koreans in May---which if it leads to a be-nuked North Korea would also be a plus.  But given history, I wouldn’t be getting jiggy just yet.

            There was more bad news for Facebook (investigations) and a new tweet for the Donald criticizing Amazon.  I mention this because the social media stocks have been a moving force in the last couple of years of the up Market; and a continuing flow of negative news will not help the Averages.

            Bottom line: as I noted yesterday, the real story right now is the Market itself and the standoff between the bulls and bears---with the bears holding the field on a very short term basis.  Nevertheless, to declare victory, they have a lot of major support to overcome plus first quarter earnings season which begins soon and which most pundits believe will be positive.  I await the outcome.

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

Economics

   This Week’s Data

      US

            February pending home sales rose 3.1% versus estimates of up 3.0%.

                Weekly jobless claims fell 12,000 versus expectations of down 1,000.

            February personal income was up 0.4%, in line; personal spending was up 0.2%, also in line.

     International

    Other

            Household buying plans take a deep dive (medium):

            More (disappointing) news on student loans (short):

            Apartment vacancy rate increases in first quarter (short):

            Stockman on the possible appointment of SF Fed head Williams to run the NY Fed (medium):

            Pentagon ‘loses’ $3 billion (aka our money) in Afghanistan.  No wonder it needs a bigger budget (medium):


What I am reading today

            Investing in quality companies is a great strategy as long as you do at the right price (medium):

            Investing in an era of distractions (medium):

            The largest organ that we never knew we had (a big long but very interesting):
           

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Wednesday, March 28, 2018

The Morning Call--A return to 'selling the rips'


The Morning Call

3/28/18

The Market
         
    Technical

The indices (DJIA 23857, S&P 2612) declined yesterday in another ‘sell the rips’ move.  Volume rose (not a good sign); breadth was negative.  Both of the Averages closed below their 100 day moving averages (now resistance) but above their 200 day moving averages (though not by much; indeed, it seems likely that this support level will be tested again today) and within very short term downtrends.  The Dow finished in a short term trading range but in intermediate and long term uptrends.  The S&P is in uptrends across all timeframes.  In short, the technical picture has gone from solidly up to cloudy.

The VIX was up 7 %, ending in a very short term uptrend, above its 100 and 200 day moving averages and the lower boundary of its short term trading range. 

The long Treasury was up 1%.  However, it is remains below its 100 and 200 day moving averages and in an intermediate term downtrend---indicating higher rates in the offing.  On the other hand, it is now in a very short term uptrend---just the opposite.  (Is economic growth slowing?)

            One trader’s perspective (medium):

            Possible explanation for the widening LIBOR spreads (medium):

The dollar was up ½ %.  Nonetheless, its chart remains ugly, with UUP trading below its 100 and 200 day moving averages and in an intermediate term downtrend.

GLD fell ½ %.  Again trading counter to its historic inverse relationship with bonds. It remains above its 100 and 200 day moving averages and within a short term uptrend.

Bottom line: investors once again ‘sold the rips’ yesterday.  However, while the technicals of the equity market still point higher for the long term, cracks in this thesis remain. So near term direction is in question.  No matter how you feel about stock valuation, I don’t think that this is a time to be committing cash unless it is in a company whose stock has been decimated (down 30-50%).

I remain confused by aggregate pin action in TLT, UUP and GLD.
           
    Fundamental

       Headlines

            Yesterday’s economic stats were mixed: month to date retail chain store sales and the January Case Shiller home price index were positive while the March Richmond Fed manufacturing index and March consumer confidence were disappointing.     

            Aside from the Market volatility, trade remained the story as the White House announced that Trump is now considering curbing Chinese investments in US (short):

More thoughts on a trade war with China (medium):

            In the background remains:

(1) irresponsible fiscal policy. Trump caved (medium):

                  Stockman on the increase in military spending (medium):

            (2) Fed policy.

                  The value of the yield curve signal (medium):

                  Bernanke’s beliefs busted (medium and a must read):
           
            Bottom line: bulls and bears seemingly continue to battle it out over the import of trade, deficit spending and a tightening Fed.  What I appreciate is that, at last, higher deficits and tighter money are being considered in the equations of economic strength and equity valuations.  You know my opinion on those issues; but that isn’t what counts.  What matters is what the Market concludes; and that hasn’t yet been determined.  Patience.
           
    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
 
Economics

   This Week’s Data

      US

            Month to date retail chain store sales grew faster than in the prior week.

            The January Case Shiller home price index rose 0.8% versus expectations of +0.7%.

            The March Richmond Fed manufacturing index was 15 versus estimates of 22.

            March consumer confidence came in at 127.7 versus forecasts of 131.0.

                Weekly mortgage applications rose 4.8% while purchase applications advanced 3.0%.

            The third revised estimate for fourth quarter GDP growth was reported at +2.9% versus consensus of 2.7%; the price index was +2.3%, in line; corporate profits were -6.0% versus the prior reading of +9.8%.

            The February US trade deficit was $75.4 billion versus forecasts of $74.0 billion.

     International

    Other

            The Philadelphia Fed’s coincident economic indicator (short):

            Bureaucratic inefficiencies (short):

           

What I am reading today

            Discipline is the best investment strategy (short):
            

                (Another) US failure, this time in Syria (medium):


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