Monday, January 29, 2018

Monday Morning Chartology

The Morning Call

1/29/18

The Market
         
    Technical

            Again, no comment required.



            The long Treasury continues its downward drift, closing back below its 200 day moving average, thereby negating Thursday’s push above it.  While still in a technical no man’s land, the very short term momentum is to the downside.



            Despite all attempts to walk back Mnuchin’s weak dollar comments, the dollar still closed lower on Friday.  This is not a pretty chart.  However, given that TLT and UUP tend to trade in tandem (i.e. higher interest rates usually means a stronger dollar), the latest inverse pin action is a reason to pay attention.  One of these seems likely to reverse.



            Gold is having a nice run.  That is not that unusual when the dollar is being hammered.  However, it is when interest rates are rising.  I continue to be uncomfortable with the technical backdrop to this Market.



            The VIX was down on Friday, in line with its normal relationship with stock prices.  It closed right on the lower boundary of its recently reset short term trading range.  Its pin action remains a bit confusing.



    Fundamental

       Headlines

  
    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
 
            Donaldson (NYSE:DCI) declares $0.18/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

Economics

   This Week’s Data

      US

            December personal income rose 0.4% versus expectations of up 0.3%; personal spending increased 0.4% versus estimates of up 0.5%; the PCE indicator was up 0.1%, in line.

     International

    Other

            Update on auto loans (medium):

What I am reading today

            Nouriel Roubini on crypto currencies (medium):

            You are ordering wine wrong (medium):

            Belguim, how low can a low country go? (medium):

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