Saturday, November 18, 2017

The Closing Bell

The Closing Bell

11/18/17

I am taking Thanksgiving week off.  If this Market gets squirrelly, I will be in touch.  Otherwise, enjoy your holiday.

Statistical Summary

   Current Economic Forecast
                       
2016 actual

Real Growth in Gross Domestic Product                          1.6%
Inflation (revised)                                                              1.6%                    
Corporate Profits (revised)                                                     4.2%

2017 estimates (revised)

Real Growth in Gross Domestic Product                      -1.25-+0.5%
                        Inflation                                                                         +.0.5-1.5%
                        Corporate Profits                                                            -15-0%

2018 estimates (revised)

Real Growth in Gross Domestic Product                          1.5-2.5%
                        Inflation                                                                          +1.5-2%
                        Corporate Profits                                                                5-10%


   Current Market Forecast
           
            Dow Jones Industrial Average

                                    Current Trend (revised):  
                                    Short Term Uptrend                                 21819-24555
Intermediate Term Uptrend                     19280-26611
Long Term Uptrend                                  5751-24198
                                               
                        2016    Year End Fair Value                                   12600-12800

                        2017     Year End Fair Value                                   13100-13300

2018     Year End Fair Value                                   13800-14000

            Standard & Poor’s 500

                                    Current Trend (revised):
                                    Short Term Uptrend                                     2550-2825
                                    Intermediate Term Uptrend                         2302-3074
                                    Long Term Uptrend                                     905-2763
                                               
                        2016   Year End Fair Value                                      1560-1580
                       
2017 Year End Fair Value                                       1620-1640         

2018 Year End Fair Value                                       1700-1720         


Percentage Cash in Our Portfolios

Dividend Growth Portfolio                          59%
            High Yield Portfolio                                     55%
            Aggressive Growth Portfolio                        55%

Economics/Politics
           
The Trump economy is providing a higher upward bias to equity valuations.   The data flow this week was mixed: above estimates: October housing starts, the November housing index, weekly mortgage and purchase applications, October industrial production/capacity utilization, September business inventories/sales, October import/export prices; below estimates: month to date retail chain store sales, weekly jobless claims, the October small business confidence index, the November NY, Philadelphia and Kansas City Feds’ manufacturing indices, the October budget deficit, October PPI; in line with estimates: October CPI, October retail sales/sales ex autos.
           

However, the primary indicators were upbeat: October housing starts (+), October industrial production (+), October retail sales/ex autos (0).  The call is positive: Score: in the last 110 weeks, thirty-four were positive, fifty-six negative and nineteen neutral.

Perhaps more important, the trend over the last six weeks has been mostly upbeat, likely confirming that the economy is starting to show a little life.  That notion is supported by the most recent read of the big four economic indicators which have been positive for the last eight week.  Accordingly, I am bumping up my 2018 GDP/corporate profit growth forecast.  In qualitative terms, I would characterize this change as an improvement from sluggish to below average growth driven mostly by cyclical as opposed to secular factors.


Overseas, the pattern remains the same: strength in Europe which is likely contributing to a pick in growth here; not so much in the rest of the globe. Indeed, the Chinese data has shown a marked deterioration since the conclusion of the Chinese Communist Party Congress; and that will likely be aggravated by the recent tightening in standards for the financial industry which are being implemented to halt the excessive use of debt.

In fiscal policy, the house and senate passed their versions of tax reform, though the reconciliation process will be a lot more difficult.  To be fair, I do think that some tax bill will be passed but I doubt it will be ‘reform’, ‘simpler’, ‘fairer’ or ‘pro-growth’.  Our (new and improved) forecast:

A pick up in the long term secular economic growth rate based on less government regulation.  This increase in secular growth could be further augmented by pro-growth fiscal policies including repeal of Obamacare and enactment of (revenue neutral) tax reform and infrastructure spending.  But the odds of that occurring lessen daily.  Further, any expected increase in the secular rate of economic growth would likely be rendered moot if tax reform (assuming its passes) increases the national debt and the deficit.

Finally, cyclical growth appears to be turning up though I am not sure whether it is a function of organic or a pickup in international growth. As a result, I have raised our 2018 growth forecast.
                       
       The negatives:

(1)   a vulnerable global banking system.  Nothing new.

(2)   fiscal/regulatory policy. 

I don’t know why I bother even commenting on fiscal policy because it gives it a status that it doesn’t deserve---passage of the house and senate versions of a tax bill notwithstanding.  The truth is that there is no coherent fiscal policy because the ruling class gives no weight to controlling costs/reducing spending.  They just want to either spend more or cut taxes.  The tax legislation in its current form changes nothing.  I hate to beat this horse to death.  There is little more that can be said.

Side by side comparison of the house and senate bills (medium):

You know my bottom line, too much debt stymies economic growth even if it partly comes from a tax cut.

           
Stockman on the tax reform measures (medium and a must read):


(3)   the potential negative impact of central bank money printing:  The key point here is that [a] the Fed has inflated bank reserves far beyond any comparable level in history and [b] while this hasn’t been an economic problem to date, {i} it still has to withdraw all those reserves from the system without creating any disruptions---a task that I regularly point out it has proven inept at in the past and {ii} it has created or is creating asset bubbles in the stock market as well as in the auto, student and mortgage loan markets.  

Little news this week on monetary affairs, though

[a] the Chinese fixed income markets are starting to exhibit signs of heartburn, suggesting something is going within the labyrinth of policy making.  To be sure, nothing may be occurring other than the workings of an inefficient financial system.  Or it could be the results of the aforementioned crack down on speculative lending practices.  Whatever, it bears watching and

[b] Draghi made another of his ‘everything is awesome’ speeches but made no mention of stepping up the unwind of EU QE.
           

You know my bottom line: when QE starts to unwind, so does the mispricing and misallocation of assets.  That thesis is about to be tested.  (also a must read)
           

(4)   geopolitical risks:  little to add.

(5)   economic difficulties around the globe.  The stats this week were in line with recent trends.


[a] German third quarter GDP was strong; third quarter UK inflation was below estimate as was October unemployment,

[b] October Chinese industrial production and fixed asset investment were below consensus while retail sales were above; the Chinese equivalent of the Fed’s Beige Book showed slowing growth throughout the economy,

[c] third quarter Japanese GDP was strong.

The bottom line remains the same: Europe gaining strength, Japan may be improving, China a big question.
                 

            Bottom line:  the US economy growth rate appears to be improving as a result of a combination of the positive impact on its secular growth rate brought on by increasing deregulation and a cyclical component of a late stage recovery helped by a better performance of the EU economy.  Unfortunately, I don’t believe there is much chance of returning to a more normal secular long term rate of growth because of (1) too much debt that will not be assuaged by the recently announced tax bill, in its current form and (2) a failed Fed QE policy that has done little for growth but led to exaggerated moves in asset pricing and allocation.

The Market-Disciplined Investing
         
  Technical

The indices (DJIA 23358, S&P 2578) seem to have entered into some kind of consolidation phase, failing to follow through on Thursday’s strong pin action which in turn had reversed a week of drifting lower.  Volume fell and breadth weakened.  But the bottom line remains that both of the Averages remain above their 100 and 200 day moving averages and are in uptrends across all time frames.  The assumption is that stock prices are going higher.

The VIX (11.4) was down another 3%, but still finished above the upper boundary of its former short term downtrend (now a trading range), above its 100 day moving average (now support), above its 200 day moving average (now support) and above the lower boundary of its long term trading range.  Following its recent pattern of not trading inversely to stock prices, it was down on a down day.  More clarity is needed to get a sense of what is going on.
           
The long Treasury was up ¾ %, ending above its 100 day moving average (now support), above its 200 day moving average (now support) and above the lower boundaries of its short term trading range and long term uptrend.   The only negative is that TLT has not re-established a very short term uptrend.  (economic weakness or a safety trade?)
           
The dollar fell, finishing below its 200 day moving average (now resistance), below the upper boundary of its short term downtrend, but above (though closing in on) its 100 day moving average (now support).  It appears that UUP is confirming its downtrend---which suggests economic weakness or flight from the dollar.

GLD was up 1 ¼%, closing well above its 100 day moving average (remember that it has violated this moving average five times in the last week; if remains there through the close on Tuesday, it will set as support), above its 200 day moving average (support) and the lower boundary of a short term uptrend. 

Bottom line: long term, the indices remain strong viz a viz their moving averages and uptrends across all timeframes. Short term, they are above the resistance level marked by their August highs, meaning that there is no resistance between current price levels and the upper boundaries of the Averages long term uptrends. The technical assumption has to be that stocks are going higher.
           
Strength in TLT and GLD along with weakness in UUP suggest a slowing economy---certainly not the narrative from stock land.  That said, the TLT, GLD, UUP trends are all very short term, so it is too soon to be drawing any conclusions.

I remain uncomfortable with the overall technical picture.
           

Fundamental-A Dividend Growth Investment Strategy

The DJIA and the S&P are well above ‘Fair Value’ (as calculated by our Valuation Model).  However, ‘Fair Value’ could be rising based on a new set of regulatory policies which would lead to improvement in the historically low long term secular growth rate of the economy (depending on the validity of Reinhart/Rogoff; also note an improvement in the cyclical growth rate resulting from better growth overseas doesn’t affect the secular growth as calculated in our Model); but it still reflects the elements of a botched Fed transition from easy to tight money and a ‘muddle through’ scenario in Japan and China.

The US economy appears to have picked up a little steam as it reaches the late stage of its anemic recovery.  I have raised my 2018 GDP and corporate growth estimates; but even on that forecast, stocks in general are generously valued.  So this upgraded outlook will do little to alter values in our Model.

The GOP made progress on its tax reform with both the house and senate passing its own separate version.  I am going to give them the benefit of the doubt and assume passage of some sort of tax bill.  However, while I believe it may score political points with the electorate and price points with investors, I also believe that it will do little to promote secular economic growth.  As a result, if stocks fly on tax cuts, they will discount even more future growth that is either not there or so far in the future as to not be really relevant to today’s valuations. 

In short, even if passage is achieved, I believe that Street estimates for economic and corporate profit growth based on the improving economy, fiscal reform narrative are too optimistic.  And when it wakes up from this fairy tale that could, in turn, lead to declining valuations. 

That said, fiscal policy is a distant second where it comes to Market impact.  The 800 pound gorilla for equity valuations is central bank monetary policy based on the thesis that (1) QE did little to help the economy but led to extreme distortions in asset pricing and allocation and (2) hence, its unwinding will do little to hurt the economy but much to equities as the severe perversion of security valuations is undone.  That thesis is about to get tested, albeit at an agonizingly slow pace, as the Fed and other central banks inch their way toward monetary normalization.

Bottom line: the assumptions on long term secular growth in our Economic Model may be beginning to improve as we learn about the new regulatory policies and their magnitude.  Plus, there is a ray of hope (though fading) that fiscal policy could further increase that growth assumption though its timing and magnitude are unknown.  On the other hand, if it raises the deficit/debt, I believe that it would negate any potential positive. In any case, I continue to believe that the current Street narrative is overly optimistic---which means Street models will ultimately will have to lower their consensus of Fair Value for equities. 

Our Valuation Model assumptions may be changing depending on the aforementioned economic tradeoffs impacting our Economic Model.  However, even if tax reform proves to be a positive, the math in our Valuation Model still shows that equities are way overpriced.

                As a long term investor, with equity valuations at historical highs, I would want to own cash in my Portfolio and would use the current price strength to sell a portion of your winners and all of your losers.
               
DJIA             S&P

Current 2017 Year End Fair Value*              13200             1630
Fair Value as of 11/30/17                                13158            1625
Close this week                                               23358            2578

Over Valuation vs. 11/30
             
55%overvalued                                   20394              2518
            60%overvalued                                   21052              2600
            65%overvalued                                   21710              2681
            70%overvalued                                   22368              2762


* Just a reminder that the Year End Fair Value number is based on the long term secular growth of the earning power of productive capacity of the US economy not the near term   cyclical influences.  The model is now accounting for somewhat below average secular growth for the next 3 to 5 years. 

The Portfolios and Buy Lists are up to date.


Steve Cook received his education in investments from Harvard, where he earned an MBA, New York University, where he did post graduate work in economics and financial analysis and the CFA Institute, where he earned the Chartered Financial Analysts designation in 1973.  His 47 years of investment experience includes institutional portfolio management at Scudder. Stevens and Clark and Bear Stearns, managing a risk arbitrage hedge fund and an investment banking boutique specializing in funding second stage private companies.  Through his involvement with Strategic Stock Investments, Steve hopes that his experience can help other investors build their wealth while avoiding tough lessons that he learned the hard way.








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