Saturday, November 4, 2017

The Closing Bell

The Closing Bell

11/4/17

Statistical Summary

   Current Economic Forecast
                       
2016 actual

Real Growth in Gross Domestic Product                          1.6%
Inflation (revised)                                                              1.6%                    
Corporate Profits (revised)                                                     4.2%

2017 estimates (revised)

Real Growth in Gross Domestic Product                      -1.25-+0.5%
                        Inflation                                                                         +.0.5-1.5%
                        Corporate Profits                                                            -15-0%



   Current Market Forecast
           
            Dow Jones Industrial Average

                                    Current Trend (revised):  
                                    Short Term Uptrend                                 21659-24365
Intermediate Term Uptrend                     19208-26536
Long Term Uptrend                                  5751-24198
                                               
                        2016    Year End Fair Value                                   12600-12800

                        2017     Year End Fair Value                                   13100-13300

            Standard & Poor’s 500

                                    Current Trend (revised):
                                    Short Term Uptrend                                     2530-2805
                                    Intermediate Term Uptrend                         2288-3062
                                    Long Term Uptrend                                     905-2763
                                               
                        2016   Year End Fair Value                                      1560-1580
                       
2017 Year End Fair Value                                       1620-1640         

Percentage Cash in Our Portfolios

Dividend Growth Portfolio                          59%
            High Yield Portfolio                                     55%
            Aggressive Growth Portfolio                        55%

Economics/Politics
           
The Trump economy is providing a higher upward bias to equity valuations.   The data flow this week was positive: above estimates: September personal spending, October and month to date retail chain store sales, October consumer confidence, October light vehicle sales, weekly jobless claims, September factory orders, the October Dallas Fed manufacturing index, the October Chicago PMI, the October ISM nonmanufacturing index, the October Markit manufacturing and nonmanufacturing PMI’s, third quarter nonfarm productivity and unit labor costs, the September trade deficit; below estimates: weekly mortgage and purchase applications, October nonfarm payrolls, the October ISM manufacturing index; in line with estimates: the August Case Shiller home price index, September personal income, the October/revised September ADP private payroll report, September/August construction spending, September PCE price indicator.

The primary indicators were a plus:   September personal spending (+), September factory orders (+), third quarter productivity (+), October nonfarm payrolls (-) September personal income (0) and September/August construction spending ((0).  Given the overwhelming majority of the stats were positive, the call is a plus. Score: in the last 108 weeks, thirty-three were positive, fifty-six negative and eighteen neutral.

But more important is the recent trend which has witnessed a surge in upbeat economic indicator reports.  Certainly this week’s performance makes me think that it is real.  However, it is still too soon to know whether this is another one of the several head fakes we have received over the last five years or if it is the real thing.   I am going to give it a bit longer before making the call.  Meanwhile, I am wrestling with several issues on that score: 

First, I have already raised the growth rate based on an improved regulatory environment, so some of improvement is already reflected in our forecast. 

Second, I had expected to see some cyclical uptick in US economic growth as a result in the EU economy having escaped from the ‘muddle through’ scenario. The question being, is this latest progress in the US stats more a function of conditions in the EU than of organic US expansion.

Third, we have seen no negative fallout from Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria plus the Napa fires.  As you know, I expected some negative consequences.  So far I am totally wrong---except maybe this week’s nonfarm payroll number.
Overseas, the numbers were mixed: the EU continuing to show solid growth, China not so much.  Indeed, I wonder if the closing of the Communist Party Congress will presage a stream of ‘catch up’ bad news.

It was a big week in the realm of fiscal/monetary policy.  Big in the sense of anticipated announcements (the tax bill, Trump’s Fed chair nominee, the FOMC meeting).  But in terms of improving your and my lot in life, they were pretty pathetic attempts.  More below.


Our (new and improved) forecast:

A questionable (though increasingly less so) pick up in the long term secular economic growth rate based on less government regulation.  This hoped for increase in growth could be further augmented by pro-growth fiscal policies including repeal of Obamacare and enactment of tax reform and infrastructure spending---‘could’ being the operative word.  Unfortunately, any expected increase in the secular rate of economic growth would likely be rendered moot if tax reform (assuming its passes) increases the national debt and the deficit.

In addition, the cyclical growth appears to be turning up though I am not sure whether it is a function of organic or a pickup in international growth. I may raise our 2018 growth forecast as a result.
                       
       The negatives:

(1)   a vulnerable global banking system.  Nothing this week.

But please note this (medium and today’s must read):

(2)   fiscal/regulatory policy. 

Yes, Virginia we have a big, beautiful tax bill---not.  I ranted longer than I should have in Friday’s Morning Call to subject you to a second dose.  The bottom line though is, [with the caveat that I haven’t read all 400 pages of the proposed bill] it is not simpler, it is not fairer and it is not revenue neutral.   So what is not to like?  The good news is that enough parties are calling foul, that it will change.  I hope for the better.

I did find one additional piece of information Friday afternoon: there was a cut in corporate loopholes of $1 billion---that’s compared to the ~$800 billion in tax savings from the bill. 

Okay, I am going to rant some more.  Recall that corporate stock buybacks are at record highs.  That means that managements have spent a lot of dough on these buybacks that could otherwise been used for capital investment and creating new job.  And they did for a very good reason---to jack up earnings to which their bonuses are tied.  So I ask, is giving them another $800 billion to spend really going to change their investment/hiring policies?   I don’t think so.  Now it can be argued that part of the tax breaks go to smaller businesses who will spend the money on investing or hiring.  So I ask, why can’t the corporate tax rate be graduated just like individual tax rates? 

Here is an analysis from one of my favorites with less sarcasm as my own (medium):

A bonus analysis from another of my favorites (medium):

You know my bottom line, too much debt stymies economic growth even if it partly comes from a tax cut.

           
(3)   the potential negative impact of central bank money printing:  The key point here is that [a] the Fed has inflated bank reserves far beyond any comparable level in history and [b] while this hasn’t been an economic problem to date, {i} it still has to withdraw all those reserves from the system without creating any disruptions---a task that I regularly point out it has proven inept at in the past and {ii} it has created or is creating asset bubbles in the stock market as well as in the auto, student and mortgage loan markets.  

Trump announced his selection for the next Fed chairmanship.  It was Jerome Powell, a dove.  Therefore, I see nothing that will change the speed of the unwinding of QE---so this is going to be a slow agonizing process.  Which will just make the Fed’s current mistiming in the normalization in monetary policy agonizing---the risk being that the Fed is so far behind the curve that the economy starts to weaken just as it is starting to squeeze.  (must read):


The FOMC met and left policy and its basic outlook unchanged, though the narrative was slightly more hawkish as a result of the recent trend of good numbers.  That is not change my view of monetary policy. I will note that the Fed let $6 billion of bonds run off the last two days of October.  That’s compared to a $10 billion commitment for the month.

In other central bank news, the BOJ left rates and QE unchanged while the Bank of England raised key interest rates but promised not to do it again unless it absolutely, positively has to.


You know my bottom line: when QE starts to unwind, so does the mispricing and misallocation of assets.  That thesis is about to be tested. 

(4)   geopolitical risks:  Domestic issues continued to hold the headlines this week, but tensions between the US and North Korea [who just announced that there would be another missile test], Iran and Russia remain high.

None of these issues has been resolved; and there remains a decent probability of an unpleasant outcome in any one of them. 

(5)   economic difficulties around the globe.  This week:

[a] the October EU inflation rate declined; the October EU and UK manufacturing PMI’s were above consensus as was the UK services PMI; October German unemployment declined,

[b] the October Chinese manufacturing and services PMI’s were below expectations; while the Caixin manufacturing PMI was in line, the services PMI was above estimates and the composite PMI was below.

Europe remains strong.  Perhaps it is finally having an impact on the US economy.  Anything that will get us back to our {I believe reduced} long term secular growth rate is a plus.  The Chinese data turned negative again as the Chinese Communist Party Congress wrapped up [I tol’ you].  

            Bottom line:  our near term forecast is that the US economy growth rate should be improving as a result of a better regulatory outlook, though until very recently the signs of that pick up have been lacking.  That could be changing augmented by a now growing EU economy.  More data is need to make that call, but I am hopeful.  Unfortunately, the economy remains saddled with (1) too much debt that will not be assuaged by the recently announced tax bill, in its current form and (2) a Fed that has long since missed the deadline for normalizing monetary policy---a condition that will likely only be perpetuated by the newly nominated Fed chair.

The Market-Disciplined Investing
         
  Technical

The indices (DJIA 23539, S&P 2587) were up on the day (still the relentless drive higher).  Volume was down (fifth day in a row), but still high; breadth improved.  Both remain above their 100 and 200 day moving averages and are in uptrends across all time frames. 

The VIX (9.1) was down 8 %---finishing below the upper boundary of its short term downtrend, below 100 day moving average (now resistance), below its 200 day moving average (now resistance), below the lower boundary of a very short term uptrend, voiding that trend and now below the lower boundary of its long term trading range (if it remains there through the close on Wednesday, it will reset to a downtrend).  It is on the verge of a directional change, indicating continued higher stock prices.  The only remaining question is, will it successfully challenge its July low 8.8)?

The long Treasury was up, ending above its 200 day moving average (now support), above the lower boundaries of its short term trading range and long term uptrend, above the upper boundary of its very short term downtrend (voiding that trend) and above its 100 day moving average (now resistance; if it remains there through the close on Monday, it will revert to support).  It is a short hair away from a trend change---pointing to lower long term rates.

The dollar rose, still ending below its 200 day moving average (now resistance), but right on the upper boundary of its short term downtrend, above its 100 day moving average (now support), continues to develop a very short term uptrend.  Again, a trend change at hand, but this suggesting higher interest rates.

GLD fell, finishing below its 100 day moving average (now resistance), above but very close to its 200 day moving average (support) and the lower boundary of a short term uptrend.  Again, potential trend change, this looking at higher interest rates.

 Bottom line: long term, the indices remain strong viz a viz their moving averages and uptrends across all timeframes. Short term, they are above the resistance level marked by their August highs, meaning that there is no resistance between current price levels and the upper boundaries of the Averages long term uptrends. The technical assumption has to be that stocks are going higher.
           
Trading in UUP, GLD and TLT were again out of sync with themselves, the VIX and stocks, but seem to be pointing at a change in trends---in different directions.

I remain uncomfortable with the overall technical picture.
           

Fundamental-A Dividend Growth Investment Strategy

The DJIA and the S&P are well above ‘Fair Value’ (as calculated by our Valuation Model).  However, ‘Fair Value’ could be rising based on a new set of regulatory policies which would lead to improvement in the historically low long term secular growth rate of the economy (depending on the validity of Reinhart/Rogoff; also note an improvement in the cyclical growth rate resulting from better growth overseas doesn’t affect the secular growth as calculated in our Model); but it still reflects the elements of a botched Fed transition from easy to tight money and a ‘muddle through’ scenario in Japan and China.

The US economic stats continue to improve though it has been too short a time to revise out forecast.  Overseas, the sustained increase in the rate of economic growth in Europe could be contributing to our better performance.

However cautious I may be, stock prices are rising as investors are seemly willing to make, or at least begin to make, the bet that the economic growth rate will soon pick up.  Not to beat a dead horse, I think that if equities were more reasonably priced that would make sense.  However, with stocks at all-time high valuations, it seems that nirvana has already been discounted.  So the current rise seems to be double counting.

On the fiscal front, the ruling class continues to make a mess of policy.  The fact that tax reform is a political necessity for the GOP speaks to just how little it is willing to actually accomplish in terms of enacting reform that is simpler, fairer and not being a drag on the economy just to say they passed a bill.  True, it will almost certainly be revised.  Hopefully for the better.   However, I remain convinced that, given the magnitude of the current national debt, any (near) non-revenue neutral changes to the tax code will not provide the impetus to economic growth many hope for. 

As a result, even if passage is achieved, I believe that Street estimates for economic and corporate profit growth based on the improving economy, fiscal reform narrative are too optimistic.  And when it wakes up from this fairy tale that could, in turn, lead to declining valuations. 

That said, fiscal policy is a distant second where it comes to Market impact.  The 800 pound gorilla for equity valuations is central bank monetary policy based on the thesis that (1) QE did little to help the economy but led to extreme distortions in asset pricing and allocation and (2) hence, its unwinding will do little to hurt the economy but much to equities as the severe perversion of security valuations is undone. 

That thesis is about to get tested with the Fed announcing the unwind of its balance sheet and other central banks making noises like they could follow suit.  Of course, it will be a Chinese water torture test because (1) with the likely Powell appointment, our Fed will continue to drag its feet normalizing QE, (2) the Bank of England raised rates and then apologized for it, promising to never do it again unless it was faced with war, famine, pestilence and death, (3) meanwhile, the Japanese just keep digging a deeper hole and (4) who knows what the new Chinese five year plan will mean of monetary policy.

Bottom line: the assumptions on long term secular growth in our Economic Model may be beginning to improve as we learn about the new regulatory policies and their magnitude.  Plus, there is a ray of hope (though fading) that fiscal policy could further increase that growth assumption though its timing and magnitude are unknown.  On the other hand, if it raises the deficit/debt, I believe that it would negate any potential positive. In any case, I continue to believe that the current Street narrative is overly optimistic---which means Street models will ultimately will have to lower their consensus of Fair Value for equities. 

Our Valuation Model assumptions may be changing depending on the aforementioned economic tradeoffs impacting our Economic Model.  However, even if tax reform proves to be a positive, the math in our Valuation Model still shows that equities are way overpriced.

                As a long term investor, with equity valuations at historical highs, I would want to own cash in my Portfolio and would use the current price strength to sell a portion of your winners and all of your losers.


DJIA             S&P

Current 2017 Year End Fair Value*              13200             1630
Fair Value as of 11/30/17                                13158            1625
Close this week                                               23328            2575

Over Valuation vs. 11/30
             
55%overvalued                                   20394              2518
            60%overvalued                                   21052              2600
            65%overvalued                                   21710              2681
            70%overvalued                                   22368              2762


* Just a reminder that the Year End Fair Value number is based on the long term secular growth of the earning power of productive capacity of the US economy not the near term   cyclical influences.  The model is now accounting for somewhat below average secular growth for the next 3 to 5 years. 

The Portfolios and Buy Lists are up to date.


Steve Cook received his education in investments from Harvard, where he earned an MBA, New York University, where he did post graduate work in economics and financial analysis and the CFA Institute, where he earned the Chartered Financial Analysts designation in 1973.  His 47 years of investment experience includes institutional portfolio management at Scudder. Stevens and Clark and Bear Stearns, managing a risk arbitrage hedge fund and an investment banking boutique specializing in funding second stage private companies.  Through his involvement with Strategic Stock Investments, Steve hopes that his experience can help other investors build their wealth while avoiding tough lessons that he learned the hard way.








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