Friday, October 20, 2017

The Morning Call--The knowing suspension of common sense

The Morning Call

10/20/17

The Market
         
    Technical

The indices (DJIA 23163, S&P 2562) were up again, despite a big down opening.  Volume was up and breadth continued strong.  Both remain above their 100 and 200 day moving averages and are in uptrends across all time frames. 

The VIX (10.0) was fractionally lower, remaining below the upper boundary of its short term downtrend and below its 100 and 200 day moving averages.  However, it remained above the lower boundary of its long term trading range.  As I noted yesterday, it has made a second higher low; so it is starting to develop a very short term uptrend.  At the moment, it appears that the July low was the bottom.

The long Treasury rose, finishing above its 100 and 200 day moving averages (support) and the lower boundaries of its short term trading range and its long term uptrend.  It has made a second higher low and, thus, is developing a very short term uptrend.

The dollar fell, remaining in its short term downtrend and below its 100 and 200 day moving averages. It has made a second lower high, so it developing a very short term downtrend.


GLD was up, ending above its 100 and 200 day moving averages (support) and the lower boundary of a short term uptrend.  It has made a second higher low, so it is developing a very short term uptrend.

 Bottom line: long term, the indices remain strong viz a viz their moving averages and uptrends across all timeframes. Short term, they are above the resistance level marked by their August highs, meaning that there is no resistance between current price levels and the upper boundaries of the Averages long term uptrends.  Yesterday’s pin action (a big sell off at the open and finishing higher on the day) suggests that the bulls are still control of the board.

The recent trading in UUP, GLD and TLT appears to be attempting to re-establish the trends in place in July, i.e. reflecting a weaker economy and low interest rates.

I remain uncomfortable with the overall technical picture.

    Fundamental

       Headlines

            Yesterday’s economic stats were weighed to the positive side: weekly jobless claims were less than anticipated and the Philly Fed business index was stronger than estimates; on the other hand, the September leading economic indicators were much weaker than forecast.

            Overseas, the results were not quite as good.  Third quarter Chinese GDP was in line while retail sales, industrial output and fixed asset investment were slightly ahead of expectations.  However, with the Communist Party Congress now in session; so the numbers may have been fudged to insure no cognitive dissonance during the gathering.  On the other hand, UK September retail sales were well below estimates and the August Japanese all activity index was below forecasts.

            There were two other news events that bear mentioning:

(1)   a Bank of China official warned against Market optimism.  This really freaked the Asian equity markets and spilled over into early trading in the US (medium):
           
(2)   rumors circulated that Powell [dove] was now the leading candidate for Fed chair.  Clearly, the Market would love another easy money Fed chief; so that provided support for stocks.  On the other hand, a Yellen repeat would simply make the asset mispricing and misallocation problem all the worse (short):

            ***overnight, the Senate passed a FY2018 budget bill.  The good news is that if the house will now pass its version and the two can be reconciled, that will set up the GOP to pass tax reform with just a majority vote.  The bad news is that (1) the cost cutting assumptions in the budget all amount to a Grimes fairy tale.  Indeed under more realistic assumptions it will propel the debt/GDP ratio ever higher, and (2) the current version of the tax reform package is for cuts of $1.5 trillion.  For the results to be anywhere near revenue neutral requires the knowing suspension of common sense.  In short, our ruling class is digging an ever deeper debt hole which will require an ever larger share of national productivity to service.

             Bottom line: as I noted above, the bulls still rule no matter what the headlines.  As long as that is the case, lay back and enjoy it.  But I wouldn’t be fully invested; indeed, I want a decent cash position.  Our Portfolios are now ~50% in cash.

       Investing for Survival
   
            So few winners, so much dead weight.

           
    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
 
Genuine Parts (NYSE:GPC): Q3 EPS of $1.16 misses by $0.12.
Revenue of $4.1B (+4.1% Y/Y) in-line.

Genuine Parts Company (NYSE:GPC) announces separate acquisitions within its Motion Industries subsidiary and U.S. automotive parts group.
The company acquired Apache Hose & Belting Company for the Motions Industries subsidiary. The Iowa-based company specializes in value-added fabrication of belts, hoses and cut and molded products used in a wide array of industries and applications. Genuine Parts expects Apache to generate estimated annual revenues of $100M.
Genuine Parts also acquired parts distributor Monroe Motor Products. The company says the addition of Monroe will fold into its U.S. Automotive operations and is expected to generate approximate annual revenues of $25M.
Schlumberger (NYSE:SLB): Q3 EPS of $0.42 in-line.
Revenue of $7.91B (+12.7% Y/Y) in-line.

Procter & Gamble (NYSE:PG): Q1 EPS of $1.09 beats by $0.01.
Revenue of $16.65B (+0.8% Y/Y) misses by $50M.

Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO) declares $0.37/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

Economics

   This Week’s Data

            The September leading economic indicators fell 0.2% versus expectations of a 0.1% decline.

   Other

            Central bankers don’t know how to do their job (medium):

           
Politics

  Domestic

  International War Against Radical Islam


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