Monday Morning Chartology

The Morning Call

10/23/17

The Market

         

    Technical

            Presented without comment.

            The long Treasury got hammered on Friday.  That kept it below its 100 day moving average, reverting to resistance and also pushed it below the lower boundary of a developing very short term uptrend.  So very short term, the pin action seems to be reflecting increasing concerns among bond investors about a strengthening economy and rising rates.

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-22/icecap-asset-management-we-are-about-witness-financial-market-movement-lifetime

            The dollar rallied, pushing it out of a developing very short term downtrend.  But it remains below its 100 and 200 day moving averages and in a short term downtrend.

            GLD remains above its 100 and 200 day moving averages and in a short term uptrend.  Like TLT and UUP, it voided a very short term trend and is now on the verge of challenging both moving averages and the short term uptrend.

            The VIX had an unusually volatile week.  It unsuccessfully challenged both moving averages as well as the lower boundary of a developing very short term uptrend.  At the moment, the low set in July remains the bottom.

            Bottom line: while the equity indices are in solid uptrends, TLT, UUP, GLD and the VIX have been see sawed, giving one false signal after another.  I remain confused about the technical picture.

    Fundamental

       Headlines

            ***Abe was reelected prime minister of Japan, insuring the extension QE.

            The latest from John Mauldin (medium and a must read):

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-21/mauldin-investors-ignore-what-may-be-biggest-policy-error-history

       Investing for Survival

   

            Three retirement rules that may not work.

            https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/personalfinance/retirement/2017/09/26/3-retirement-rules-of-thumb-that-are-probably-wrong/105855500/

           

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Kimberly-Clark (NYSE:KMB): Q3 EPS of $1.60 beats by $0.06.

Revenue of $4.64B (+1.1% Y/Y) misses by $20M.

V.F. (NYSE:VFC): Q3 EPS of $1.23 beats by $0.11.

Revenue of $3.51B (+0.6% Y/Y) beats by $120M.

V.F. (NYSE:VFC) declares $0.46/share quarterly dividend, 9.5% increase from prior dividend of $0.42.

Economics

   This Week’s Data

            The Chicago Fed national activity index was reported at +0.17 versus expectations of -0.1 %

   Other

            Xi’s roadmap (medium):

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-21/xis-roadmap-chinese-dream

            China’s housing boom is being aided by government purchases (medium):

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-21/unprecedented-housing-bailout-revealed-china-property-sales-drop-first-time-30-month

            Even the IMF is getting worried (medium):

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-22/here-imfs-global-financial-crash-scenario

Politics

  Domestic

  International War Against Radical Islam

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