Friday, September 15, 2017

The Morning Call--What was said and who said it?

The Morning Call

9/15/17

The Market
         
    Technical

The indices (DJIA 22203, S&P 2495) turned in a mixed performance yesterday (Dow up, S&P down) with the DJIA finally closing above its August high.  Volume rose; breadth continued strong.  Both remain above their 100 and 200 day moving averages and are in uptrends across all time frames. 

The VIX (10.5) was off pennies, leaving it below the upper boundary of its short term downtrend, below its 100 day moving average (reverting back to resistance), below its 200 day moving average for a fourth day, reverting to resistance and above the lower boundary of a developing very short term uptrend. The question as to whether or not the VIX has bottomed remains open.

The long Treasury rebounded, finishing above its 100 and 200 day moving averages (both support) and the lower boundaries of its short term trading range and its long term uptrend but below the resistance level marked by its August high. 

The dollar was down, remaining in short term and very short term downtrends and below its 100 and 200 day moving averages and in a series of seven lower highs. 
           
GLD rose, ending above the lower boundaries of its short term and very short term uptrends, above its 100 and 200 day moving averages (both support) and has made a fourth higher low. 

Bottom line: long term, the indices remain strong viz a viz their moving averages and uptrends across all timeframes. Short term, the Dow closed above the resistance level marked by its August high, putting it back in sync with the S&P.

On the other hand, all those Monday gap openings among the major indices still need to be closed.  Finally, the unambiguous performances of TLT, GLD and UUP continue to point at a weakening economy.

I remain uncomfortable with the overall technical picture.

    Fundamental

       Headlines
            The economic data was mixed yesterday: weekly jobless claims declined versus expectations of an increase; the August CPI was a tad hotter than anticipated though the number ex food and energy was in line. 

Much media time and print space was wasted wondering whether the CPI stat was the sign that inflation was at last starting to move towards the Fed’s 2% objective.  News flash, one datapoint does not a trend make.  Most likely this news chatter was spawned by the hawkish statements from the Bank of England and its governor Mark Carney.

            That said, the BOE left rates and its bond buying program unchanged; and I should point out that [a] like our own beloved Fed, these guys have threatened monetary normalization in the past and then done nothing and [b] the fixed income crowd seemed unimpressed as the long Treasury rose in price {declined in yield}. 

            Other overseas economic news was headlined by the August Chinese retail sales, industrial production and fixed investment numbers falling short of estimates.  As you know, the Chinese economic data has been improving of late---to the point where I was considering removing it from the ‘muddle through’ scenario.  These stats clearly put that notion on hold.

            ***overnight, North Korea fired another missile overflying Japan.  The world yawns.

            The rest of the day was consumed with Washington and the media parsing the meaning of ‘agreement’, ‘deal’ and ‘the wall’ following a meeting Wednesday night between Trump and the dems focused on reaching an agreement on the status of ‘dreamers’ and funding the wall.  Here are the links covering the issue.  The issue being whether Trump gave up funding for the wall and agreed to allow the ‘dreamers’ to stay. 

Clearly, no one except the participants know what was said; though we are sure to find out near term.  At this point, my only observation this is that it is one thing for the Donald to let the GOP know that he will negotiate with the opposition if the GOP can’t come up with achieving a goal (read debt ceiling and tax reform) and quite another to cut a deal (on the wall and the dreamers) before having given the GOP a chance to come up with a solution.  In other words, the best way to accomplish his agenda, in my opinion, is to push the GOP into a compromise within itself versus pissing them off and risk getting nothing.
           
Bottom line: I am not sure what to make of the hawkish narrative out of the BOE.  History says this chatter is not worth much.  On the other hand, if the BOE becomes the first major central bank to start normalization, the question is how far behind will the other banks be?  And specifically with the Fed, if we also get some sort of stimulative tax reform, the situation would set up for it to take the opportunity to start unwinding QE.

You know my point here: when, as and if QE starts to unwind, so does asset mispricing and misallocation.

            My thought for the day: adverse markets come and go, as do market liquidity and confidence, but it is a universal truth that long-term investments (not speculations) are better made in adverse markets than in euphoric markets because good values are more pervasive. The question is not when and by how much something might go up, but what the risk is and how much you get paid to take it! And everything has risk of some kind, including cash and CDs; one just needs to pick the risks that are best to take.

       Subscriber Alert

            Schlumberger (SLB-$67) stock price has been cut in half and is now in its Buy Value Range.  Accordingly, at the Market, the Aggressive Growth Portfolio will Add to its position.

       Investing for Survival
   
            The problem with investing apathy.

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
 
Oracle (NYSE:ORCL): Q1 EPS of $0.62 beats by $0.02.
Revenue of $9.21B (+7.0% Y/Y) beats by $180M.

Economics

   This Week’s Data

            August retail sales fell 0.2% versus expectations of +0.1%; ex autos, it rose 0.2% versus forecasts of +0.5%.

            The September NY Fed manufacturing index was reported at 24.4 versus consensus of 19.0.

   Other

Politics

  Domestic

The wall---deal or no deal?

  International War Against Radical Islam


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