Monday Morning Chartology

The Morning Call

9/18/17

The Market

         

    Technical

            The S&P had a good week and remains above its moving averages and uptrends across all timeframes.  Having pushed through its former high, there is nothing overhead to prevent a move to the upper boundary of its long term uptrend.  The only negative in this picture is last Monday’s gap open.  To illustrate the magnetic draw of a gap, look back in this chart at all the other gaps, both up and down.  They were all filled.

            Last week was a rough one for the long Treasury.  Most of the damage was done on Monday---you can see the big gap open.  It then found its legs and traded flat for the rest of the week.  Momentum is strong as it remains well above its moving averages and the lower boundaries of its short term trading range and its long term uptrend.  That gap will likely be closed.

            The dollar continues is downward move---below its moving averages and in short term and very short term downtrends.  Intraweek, it also closed the gap open last Monday; meaning, technically speaking, the pull of that gap to the upside has been satisfied and leaving UUP free to decline further.

            GLD had a difficult week though it remained above its moving averages and in short and very short term uptrends.  It too has a gap to be filled.

            The VIX is once again close to challenging its all-time low.  I await the outcome.

    Fundamental

       Headlines

            The FOMC meets this week.  Expectations are that it will announce its plan for unwinding its balance sheet.  As you know, I have serious doubts.

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-18/starts-whimper-ends-bang-trader-previews-feds-balance-sheet-reduction

            More on valuations (medium):

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-18/deutsche-bank-global-asset-prices-are-most-elevated-history

       Investing for Survival

   

            There is no perfect retirement spending strategy

            http://obliviousinvestor.com/there-is-no-perfect-retirement-spending-strategy/

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Economics

   This Week’s Data

   Other

            The coming pension storm (today’s must read):

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-17/pension-storm-coming-will-become-one-most-heated-battles-my-lifetime

            Kyle Bass on China (medium):

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-17/kyle-bass-chinas-40-trillion-banking-system-has-largest-imbalances-ive-ever-seen

Politics

  Domestic

  International War Against Radical Islam

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