Thursday, August 24, 2017

The Morning Call--Mr. President, please shut the f**k up

The Morning Call

8/24/17

The Market
         
    Technical

The indices (DJIA 21812, S&P 2444) failed to generate any follow through to Tuesday’s big up day.  Volume was down (again); breadth was weaker.  The S&P remained above the lower boundary of its short term uptrend and its 100 and 200 day moving averages.  However, yesterday’s price drop established a second lower high and sets up a very short term downtrend. 

The VIX (12.2) advanced 8 %, but remained below the upper boundary of its short term downtrend.  However, it recovered above its 100 day moving average, negating Tuesday’s break.  This roller coaster pin action leaves open the questions as to whether the VIX made or is making some kind of bottom extending back to late July and if I was premature resetting the intermediate term from trading range to downtrend. 

The long Treasury was up, ending above its 100 and 200 day moving averages (both support), the lower boundaries of its short term trading range and its long term uptrend and has now made a third short term higher high.  That is a lot of support. 
           
The dollar declined, closing in a short term downtrend and below its 100 and 200 day moving averages and is challenging its short term trend of higher lows. 
           
 GLD rose, finishing above the lower boundary of its very short term uptrend and its 100 and 200 day moving averages (both support).  Plus it is very close to the upper boundary of its short trading range.

Bottom line: the bulls couldn’t generate any upside follow through, though to be fair, the news flow was not positive.  I am now watching how the S&P handles the lower boundary of its short term uptrend and the developing very short term downtrend.  For the moment, the call is that it remains in uptrends across all timeframes and above its 100 and 200 day moving averages; and DJIA is in sync.  However, it may be losing upside momentum---‘may be’ being the operative words.  The TLT, UUP and GLD continue to point to a weaker economy, low inflation and low interest rates. 
           
    Fundamental

       Headlines

            The US economic was mostly negative yesterday: weekly mortgage and purchase applications were down, July housing starts (primary indicator) were awful, the August Markit manufacturing flash PMI was below estimates while the services PMI was above.

            Overseas, Europe continues to perform well, reporting the August Markit EU manufacturing, services and composite PMI’s were all above expectations.

            ***overnight, UK second quarter GDP rose 0.3%, in line, though household spending was the weakest in three years.

            None of this mattered as investors tried to digest the latest round of Trump bluster.  At his Tuesday night campaign rally, he stirred the pot on:

(1)   the ongoing NAFTA negotiations, saying that he doubted that they would lead to a desired conclusion and if that occurred, he would terminate the agreement.  I have to believe that this was all part of the Donald’s ‘art of the deal’ negotiating strategy and hopefully is not nearly as dire as it sounds.  Still it heightens uncertainty on a matter that should prove a long term positive for the US economy,

(2)   the upcoming government budget legislation, indicating that he would shut down the government is congress didn’t fund the southern wall.  Again, probably an exaggerated threat to keep congress off balance.  But also again, it hardly instills confidence in business, consumer and investor decision making processes.

            The Kansas City Fed’s Jackson Hole conference starts today and the globe is anticipating speeches from Draghi and Yellen, which I suspect will be giant nothing burgers.  I continue to believe these yahoos are paralyzed with fear over the potential impact of monetary tightening on securities markets.

Mohamed El Erian on Fed policy choices (medium and today’s must read):

                Bottom line: the economic news is not nearly as positive as the ruling class would have you believe.  The central bankers are threatening to tighten monetary policy, which I doubt.  But we will know more by the close Friday.  So far, the only thing that the GOP dominated congress can pass is gas.  Trump continues to persist in making the achievement of his own agenda more difficult by insulting and threatening the very people he needs to accomplish it.  Of course, this could all end, despite the drama.  It better because that is the way stocks are priced.

            More on valuation (medium):

       Investing for Survival

            The winning habits of gurus.

      
    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

Hormel Foods (NYSE:HRL): Q3 EPS of $0.34 misses by $0.03.
Revenue of $2.21B (-3.9% Y/Y) misses by $30M.

Hormel Foods (NYSE:HRL) acquires Cidade do Sol for $104M.
The Brazil-based company offers more than 70 products in 15 categories including authentic meats for retail and foodservice markets under the Ceratti brand.
"Strategic international growth is important to Hormel Foods and South America has been of interest to us for several years," notes Hormel Foods CEO Jim Snee.

Tiffany (NYSE:TIF): Q2 EPS of $0.92 beats by $0.06.
Revenue of $959.7M (+3.0% Y/Y) beats by $29.42M.


Economics

   This Week’s Data

            The August Markit flash manufacturing PMI was 52.5 versus estimates of 53.2; the services PMI was 56.9 versus forecasts of 54.8.

            July housing starts fell 9.3% versus consensus of being flat.

            Weekly jobless claims rose 2,000 versus expectations of up 5,000.

   Other

            Update on corporate pension unfunded liabilities (short):

Politics

  Domestic

  International War Against Radical Islam


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