Tuesday, May 2, 2017

The Morning Call--Dems roll the GOP, again

The Morning Call

5/2/17

The Market
         
    Technical

The indices (DJIA 20913, S&P 2388) turned in a mixed performance yesterday (Dow down, S&P up).  Volume fell; breadth weakened.  The VIX (10.1) declined 6 ½ %, closing below its 100 day moving average (now resistance), below its 200 day moving average (now resistance) and below the lower boundaries of its short term trading range (if it remains there through the close on Wednesday, it will reset to a downtrend) and its intermediate term trading range (if it remains there through the close on Thursday, it will reset to a downtrend).

The Dow closed [a] above its 100 day moving average, now support, [b] above its 200 day moving average, now support, [c] in a short term uptrend {19483-21635}, [c] in an intermediate term uptrend {12015-24864} and [d] in a long term uptrend {5751-23390}.

The S&P finished [a] above its 100 day moving average, now support, [b] above its 200 day moving average, now support, [c] within a short term uptrend {2281-2614}, [d] in an intermediate uptrend {2098-2702} and [e] in a long term uptrend {905-2591}.

The long Treasury fell 1% on volume, ending above its 100 day moving average (now support), below its 200 day moving average (now resistance), in a very short term downtrend and in a short term trading range.

GLD was down, closing right on its 100 day moving average (now support), above its 200 day moving average (now support), in a very short term uptrend and in a short term downtrend. 

The dollar rose, ending right on its 200 day moving average, voiding Friday’s break, below its 100 day moving averages (now resistance), below the upper boundary of its very short term downtrend and in a short term uptrend.

Bottom line: the indices continued to rest after the strong Monday/Tuesday performance, which is normal and suggests nothing directionally.  Their upside is now being marked by their former highs [21228/2402] and the upper boundaries of their long term uptrends while support on the downside exists at their 100 and 200 day moving averages and the lower boundaries of their short term uptrends. 

While I would expect a challenge of the old highs, the big question in my mind is, will those gap openings which I have mentioned get closed as part of a near term correction (which would clearly be the more positive alternative) or will the Averages continue to rise and it occur on the way down following a Market top?
           
The long Treasury, gold and the dollar have begun to act like their investors are expecting higher rates.

    Fundamental

       Headlines
           
            Yesterday’s data flow started the week on really negative footing: personal income and spending (primary indicators) were less than anticipated as was the PCE price index; the April ISM manufacturing index and March construction spending (primary indicator) were below expectations while the April Markit PMI was in line.

            Overseas, the numbers were not any better: April Chinese new orders for manufacturing and services fell to a six month low.
                       
            ***overnight, the April EU Markit manufacturing PMI rose to a six year high.

            On the political front, the good news was that it appears congress has agreed on a spending bill, forestalling a government shutdown; the bad news is that the dems once again seemed to have outmaneuvered the GOP (medium):

Bottom line: the data continues to point to the diminishing post-election-improved-sentiment boost to the economy; and, rhetoric aside, the Trump/GOP fiscal program is not proceeding as many hoped.  On the other hand, (1) earnings are surprising to the upside, (2) whether you like the details of the proposed spending bill, the fear of a government shutdown is being assuaged, (3) Trump’s deregulation efforts are progressing.

In short, there is good news and bad news.  But the good news is not good enough to justify current equity valuations.  Even if we get some of the promised fiscal plan, I don’t believe it be as stimulative as many expect; and if it is that stimulative initially (i.e. bigger deficits), I believe that it will be a net negative long term.  Further, the Fed has been too easy, missed the window to normalize monetary policy and is now stuck with a massive balance sheet that has produced egregious asset mispricing and misallocation which will have to be reversed---we just don’t know when.  Excitement alert: the FOMC starts it regularly scheduled meeting today.

Our Portfolios have sold a portion of their major winners and all their losers.

            Regression to trend (short):

            Mohamed El Erian: four things to watch this week (medium):

            My thought for the day: assuming that because something has never happened before, it won't (or can't) happen in the future is an example of normalcy bias.  History is replete with examples of unprecedented events or once in a millennium occurrences happening every ten years.  They had never happened... until they did.  It is important for investors to understand it.

       Investing for Survival
   
            Myths in investing #10.


    
    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
 
Cummins (NYSE:CMI): Q1 EPS of $2.36 beats by $0.56.
Revenue of $4.6B (+7.0% Y/Y) beats by $450M.

Emerson Electric (NYSE:EMR): Q2 EPS of $0.57 misses by $0.01.
Revenue of $3.58B (flat Y/Y) beats by $80M

Becton, Dickinson (NYSE:BDX): Q2 EPS of $2.30 beats by $0.07.
Revenue of $2.97B (-3.3% Y/Y) beats by $50M.

MasterCard (NYSE:MA): Q1 EPS of $1.01 beats by $0.06.
Revenue of $2.73B (+11.4% Y/Y) beats by $70M


Economics

   This Week’s Data

            The April Markit PMI manufacturing index came in at 52.8, in line.

            The April ISM manufacturing index was reported at 54.8 versus expectations of 56.5.

            March construction spending fell 0.2% versus estimates of +0.5%

   Other

            The Atlanta Fed’s initial second quarter GDP growth estimate at 4.3% (short):

            Citi’s US macro-economic surprise index nears a low (short):

            From the persistent optimist (medium):

            Counterpoint (medium):

            Problems in the Canadian banking system (medium):

            Greece reaches deal with lenders (medium):

Politics

  Domestic

  International War Against Radical Islam


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