Tuesday, April 25, 2017

The Morning Call--The key is follow through

The Morning Call

4/25/17

The Market
         
    Technical

The indices (DJIA 20763, S&P 2374) soared on the results on the French election.  However, volume fell and breadth barely improved; indeed, the flow of funds indicator was negative.   Both ended above the upper boundaries of their very short term downtrends.  If they close there today, those trends will be negated.  The VIX (10.8) was monkey hammered (down 26%), closing below the lower boundary of its very short term uptrend (if it remains there at the close today, that trend will be voided), below its 100 day moving average (now support; if it stays there through the close on Wednesday, it will revert to resistance), below its 200 day moving average (now support; if it remains there through the close on Thursday, it will revert to resistance) and in a short term trading range. 
               
The Dow closed [a] above its 100 day moving average, now support, [b] above its 200 day moving average, now support, [c] in a short term uptrend {19413-21635}, [c] in an intermediate term uptrend {11994-24843} and [d] in a long term uptrend {5751-23390}.

The S&P finished [a] above its 100 day moving average, now support, [b] above its 200 day moving average, now support, [c] within a short term uptrend {2273-2606}, [d] in an intermediate uptrend {2094-2698} and [e] in a long term uptrend {905-2591}.

The long Treasury declined by ½ %, but still ended above its 100 day moving average (now support), below its 200 day moving average (now resistance), in a very short term downtrend, in a short term trading range and held its uptrend since mid-March.

            And:

GLD fell, but still closed above its 100 day moving average (now support), above its 200 day moving average (now support), in a very short term uptrend and in its short term downtrend. 

The dollar gapped down 1%, ending right on its 100 day moving average (now support), below its 200 day moving averages (now resistance), below the upper boundary of its very short term downtrend and in a short term uptrend.

Oil continued to decline.

Bottom line: I often say that price is truth; and the truth is that investors got jiggy with the results of the French elections (i.e. removing fears of a French exit from the EU and hence improving the economic outlook for the EU) and rumors that Trump wants cut taxes even if that boosts the budget deficit.  However, the strong price performance notwithstanding, volume shrank, breadth was virtually unchanged, and both index gapped up on the open and didn’t fill that gap.  I have pointed out before that in the world of technicians, gaps are made to be filled.  The only question would be ‘when’.  Finally, the bond market continues to point at economic softness.  Certainly not a sign of a tax cut and a larger deficit.
           
            Still:

Who is right, stocks or bonds? (medium):

            Gap repricing without price discovery (medium):

    Fundamental

       Headlines

            Yesterday’s economic stats were mixed: the March Chicago national activity index was well below forecasts while the April Dallas manufacturing index was below its March reading but above consensus.

            Overseas, the April German business climate index came in above expectations.

            The major news items of the day were:

(1)   the results of the French elections which was clearly considered a positive by the Markets because a middle of the road candidate is now in the finals.  Everyone is assuming that he will beat the anti-EU finalist; and that in turns builds confidence about the continued strength in the EU economy.

Mohamed El Erian on the French election (medium):

(2)   Trump was reported to be pushing for major tax cuts irrespective of their impact on the budget, i.e. with no offsetting tax increases or spending cuts.  That got the Trumpflation juices flowing.  Not to be spoil sport but I have opined previously that [a] he would likely get a lot of pushback from fiscal conservatives on any increase in the budget deficit, enough perhaps to nix the deal and [b] raising the federal debt will likely have more negative effects on the economy than the tax cut will have positive ones.

                 Another risk to the reflation trade (medium):

                And as long as we are on the subject of oil (medium):

                ***overnight, Trump agreed to delay financing of the border wall so that the government funding bill due to be voted on Friday can pass.

            Bottom line: our forecast includes a ‘muddle through’ scenario in Europe.  But as you know, I am considering upgrading it based on improvement in the economic dataflow.  Implicit in that outlook is that the EU doesn’t disintegrate.  So the outcome of the French elections keeps the improvement in our forecast alive.

            Trump’s seeming willingness to raise the federal deficit/debt concerns me.  I have oft quoted the Reinhart/Rogoff study that concludes that countries with federal debt in excess of 90% of GDP suffer slowing economic growth.  The US is at the doorstep of that 90% barrier.  So his eagerness to be able to put a win in the form of a big tax cut on the political scoreboard in his first 100 days at the expense of pushing the federal debt above the 90% level is just more of the same profligate spending foisted on future taxpayers by past generations of our political class.  It is not in the mode of the tax and spending reforms we (I?) had been led to believe would occur. 
           
                Cracks in Ponzi finance land (medium):
            http://www.acting-man.com/?p=49200
           
            My thought for the day: fundamentals generally explain a good deal of price action in first 60-80% percent of a move, but the last 20-30% of a bull market is typically a blow-off, where the mania runs wild and prices go parabolic.

       Investing for Survival
   
            What is ‘enough’?

      

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

United Technologies (NYSE:UTX) declares $0.66/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous. 

Genuine Parts Company (NYSE:GPC) declares $0.675/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.
Canadian National Railway (NYSE:CNI): Q1 EPS of C$1.15 in-line.
Revenue of C$3.21B (+8.4% Y/Y) misses by C$10M.

Canadian National Railway (NYSE:CNI) declares CAD 0.4125/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

McDonald's (NYSE:MCD): Q1 EPS of $1.47 beats by $0.14.
Revenue of $5.68B (-3.7% Y/Y) beats by $160M.

T. Rowe Price (NASDAQ:TROW): Q1 EPS of $1.18 misses by $0.02.
Revenue of $1.12B (+12.7% Y/Y) beats by $10M.

Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT): Q1 EPS of $1.28 beats by $0.66.
Revenue of $9.82B (+3.8% Y/Y) beats by $550M.

3M (NYSE:MMM): Q1 EPS of $2.16 beats by $0.10.
Revenue of $7.69B (+3.8% Y/Y) beats by $220M.

Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO): Q1 EPS of $0.43 misses by $0.01.
Revenue of $9.13B (-11.6% Y/Y) beats by $240M.


Economics

   This Week’s Data

            The April Dallas Fed manufacturing index came in at 16.8 versus estimates of 15.0.

   Other

            More on student loans (medium):

Politics

  Domestic

Rolling back regulations (medium):

  International War Against Radical Islam


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