Tuesday, February 7, 2017

The Morning Call--Quiet at home, action abroad

The Morning Call


The Market

The indices (DJIA 20052, S&P 2292) failed to follow through on Friday’s positive performance.  While the Dow managed to hold above 20000, the S&P remains below 2300.  Volume fell considerably; breadth was mixed.   The VIX (11.4) was up 3 ½ %, closing below its 100 and 200 day moving averages (now resistance) and in a short term downtrend but is near the lower boundary of its intermediate term trading range (10.3).
The Dow ended [a] above its 100 day moving average, now support, [b] above its 200 day moving average, now support, [c] in a short term uptrend {18655-20695}, [c] in an intermediate term uptrend {11740-24592} and [d] in a long term uptrend {5730-20736}.

The S&P finished [a] above its 100 day moving average, now support, [b] above its 200 day moving average, now support, [c] within a short term uptrend {2182-2525}, [d] in an intermediate uptrend {2038-2639} and [e] in a long term uptrend {881-2500}.

The long Treasury was up slightly, but remained in a very short term downtrend, near the lower boundary of its short term trading range and below the 100 day moving average (now resistance), falling further below its 200 day moving average (now resistance).  

GLD was up 1 ½ %, reestablishing a very short term uptrend and closing above its 100 day moving average (now resistance; but if it remains there through the close on Wednesday, it will revert to support).    It ended below its 200 day moving average (now resistance) and within a short term downtrend. 

The dollar rose fractionally and continues to trade in a narrowing range bounded by the 100 day moving average (now support) on the downside and the upper boundary of its very short term downtrend on the upside.  A break above/below one of these levels will likely point to a directional move.  It is still above 200 day moving averages (now support) and in a short term uptrend.  

Bottom line: the indices continue to battle the 20000/2300 levels.  Until the S&P can cross the 2300 barrier, I think the upside in stocks in general is limited. 
            GLD is attempting to change the complexion of its chart for the positive.  If it can get some positive follow through the Aggressive Growth Portfolio will likely initiate a one half trading position in GDX.





            No US economic data was released yesterday.  Overseas, the January Chinese Caixin services and composite PMI’s and Japanese retail sales came in below estimates; December German factory orders were very strong.


(1)   the IMF splits over Greek bailout

(2)   Chinese foreign exchange reserves drop to the lowest level since 2011

(3)   French economic uncertainty surges to all time high

(4)   December German industrial output declined by the largest amount in 8 years.

            Aside from the back and forth on the immigration ban, Monday with Trump was relatively quiet.  However, his critics were not. 

            Larry Summers on trade (medium):

            Draghi on Trump (medium):

Bottom line: equity valuations remain in nosebleed territory.  The accelerant of late seems to be the possibility of aggressive new fiscal policies (lower taxes, higher infrastructure spending) from the Trump administration.  Unfortunately, nothing has been forthcoming of late on these campaign pledges.  Even more regrettable, the Donald’s push for tariffs and a weak dollar is not, in my opinion, good economic policy for the US.  Neither are some of the revisions to Dodd Frank that he says that he wants which appear to weaken some of the original rules that curbed banks’ speculative behavior and increased their fiduciary responsibility. 

If that wasn’t enough, this article suggests that what I considered one of Trump’s best deregulation moves, the Keystone pipeline, isn’t economically viable at current oil prices.

My point here is that while Trump’s early days have been a whirlwind of activity, it has not all been positive, especially those measures that more directly impact the economy and hence corporate profits and hence stock prices.  At the same time, stocks are priced for perfection.

There is a risk the Market may tire of aggressive dialogue in the absence of meaningful steps to improve the economy.

Small wonder that investors may be developing heartburn---and at valuation levels that leave little room for error. I would continue to sell a portion of my successful positions and get rid of my losers.’

The uncertainty president (medium):

            Complacency reigns supreme (medium):

            My thought for the day: manage risk rather than chase reward.  If you have quantified the risk (I use a Stop Loss Price), you are less likely to be panicked out of a position and be there when the upside materializes.

       Investing for Survival
            Great article on asset allocation.

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Emerson Electric (NYSE:EMR): FQ1 EPS of $0.56 beats by $0.14.
Revenue of $3.2B (-4.2% Y/Y) beats by $40M.

   This Week’s Data


            Loan demand is declining (medium):

            Update on oil (short):


            Quote of the day (short):


  International War Against Radical Islam

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

No comments:

Post a Comment