Tuesday, November 15, 2016

The Morning Call---Indices now in divergent trends

The Morning Call


The Market

Another mixed day for the indices (DJIA 18868, S&P 2164)---Dow up, S&P flat, NASDAQ down.   Volume declined; breadth continued to improve, though it pushed further into overbought territory. So a correction near term should be expected.  The VIX rose 2 ½%, closing below its 100 day moving average (now resistance), back above its 200 day moving average (now support) and within a very short term uptrend.  If that trend holds, then stocks will likely have seen their best days.

The Dow ended [a] above on its 100 day moving average, now support, [b] above its 200 day moving average, now support, [c] above the upper boundary of its short term trading range for the third day, resetting to an uptrend {17943-20000}, [c] in an intermediate term uptrend {11544-24389} and [d] in a long term uptrend {5541-19431}.

The S&P finished [a] above its 100 day moving average , now support, [b] above its 200 day moving average, now support, [c] within a short term trading range {1995-2193}, [d] in an intermediate uptrend {1983-2585} and [e] in a long term uptrend {862-2400}.  However, it still has a way to go before it challenges its all-time high.

The long Treasury had another down day on big volume, closing below its 100 day moving average (now resistance), below its 200 day moving average (now resistance), below a key Fibonacci level, in a developing a very short term downtrend, in a short term trading range and below the lower boundary of its intermediate term uptrend for a fourth day, resetting to a trading range.

            End of the bond bull market? (medium):

            Stock/bond correlation (short):

GLD got pounded again also on heavy volume, finishing below its 100 day moving average (now resistance), below its 200 day moving average (now resistance) and in a short term downtrend.  Uglier and uglier.

Bottom line: the Dow reset its short term trend to up, though the S&P hasn’t risen at the same pace and is still a fair distance from its all-time high.  Two takeaways: (1) stocks are overbought; so some consolidation is to be expected and (2) the major indices are now in divergent short term trends.  That leaves the Market trendless and it will remain so until the indices are once again in confirmation.

Meanwhile, bonds and gold continue to get beaten like a rented mule.  The pin action in bonds is a bit concerning because the worse it gets, the more impactful it will be on the equity discount factor.


            No US datapoints released yesterday, though overall this week will be a busy one.  Overseas, the stats remain disappointing: third quarter Japanese GDP came in ahead of estimates while household spending and capital investment were flat; October Chinese retail sales and industrial output were below expectations while fixed asset investment was in line.  In addition:

            Italian bond yields up ahead of referendum (medium):

            Yuan continues to crash (short):

***overnight, third quarter EU GDP grew 0.3%, in line with a recently downwardly revised estimate; German GDP was below forecasts; UK inflation was below expectations; OPEC is making another diplomatic effort to reach an agreement on production cuts.

            The name of the game continues to be mulling over what a Trump presidency means and with it some cognitive dissonance is appearing at the margins.

            Goldman throws cold water on post-election euphoria (medium):

            Bottom line: I have beaten the Trump election/GOP sweep election to death in the last week.  If you didn’t read the last Closing Bell, it summarizes all the pros and cons.  The abridged edition is (1) some of the Trump initial proposals, if they are passed, should have a positive impact on the economy, (2) some should not, (3) overall, the net effect will likely be a plus and I will have to revise our forecast to reflect it, (4) however, the economy is not the issue, (5) the issue is the gross overvaluation of equities courtesy of an irresponsibly easy Fed, (6) while an improved earnings outlook may be help that problem, a higher discount rate [higher interest rates/lower P/E] should be a counterpoint, (7) the net being, stocks will still be overvalued.

            If you haven’t already, I would build your portfolio’s cash position by selling a portion of those stocks that have performed well and all of your losers.

            My thought for the day:  if during Market corrections/collapses/drops/freefalls you can summon the courage to buy stocks when your stomach says sell, you will find opportunities that you wouldn’t have thought you would ever see.  Of course, the precondition for buying at the low, is to have the cash with which to do the buying; and that means doing some selling when stock prices are high.

       Investing for Survival
            How we view our world creates it.
    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
·         Teva Pharmaceutical (NASDAQ:TEVA): Q3 EPS of $1.31 beats by $0.02.
·         Revenue of $5.56B (+15.4% Y/Y) misses by $190M.

·         Home Depot (NYSE:HD): Q3 EPS of $1.60 beats by $0.02.
·         Revenue of $23.15B (+6.1% Y/Y) beats by $110M.


   This Week’s Data

            October retail sales rose 0.8% versus expectations of up 0.6%; ex auto they were up 0.8% versus projections of up 0.5%.

            The November New York Fed manufacturing index came in at +1.5 versus estimates of -2.3.

            October US import prices rose 0.5% versus forecasts of up 0.4% while export prices were up 0.2% versus consensus of up 0.1%


            Update on auto loans (short):



Former Goldman banker recommended for Secretary of Treasury (medium):

Thoughts on the electoral college (short):


            Trump and Putin talk (short):

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