Friday, November 11, 2016

The Morning Call--A big plus for the economy, not so much for the Market

The Morning Call

11/11/16

The Market
         
    Technical

The indices (DJIA 18807, S&P 2167) had a mixed day of sort---Dow up huge, S&P up a little, NASDAQ down. Volume rose.  Breadth improved and continues in overbought territory.  The VIX was up 2 ½%, returning to its pattern of rising even on up Market days. It closed below its 100 day moving average, for the second day (now support; if it remains there through the close today, it will revert to resistance) but still above its 200 day moving average (now support) and in a very short term uptrend.

The Dow ended [a] above on its 100 day moving average for the third day, reverting to support, [b] above its 200 day moving average, now support, [c] above the upper boundary of its short term trading range {17092-18693; if it remains there through the close on Monday, it will reset to an uptrend}, [c] in an intermediate term uptrend {11544-24389} and [d] in a long term uptrend {5541-19431}.

The S&P finished [a] above its 100 day moving average for the second day, now resistance; if it remains there through the close today, it will revert to support, [b] above its 200 day moving average, now support, [c] within a short term trading range {1995-2193}, [d] in an intermediate uptrend {1978-2580} and [e] in a long term uptrend {862-2400}.  However, it still has a way to go before it challenges its all-time high.

The long Treasury plunged (again) on huge volume, closing below its 100 day moving average (now resistance), below its 200 day moving average (now resistance), below a key Fibonacci level, in a developing a very short term downtrend and below the lower boundaries of its short term uptrend for a second day (if it remains there through the close today, it will reset to a trading range) and its intermediate term uptrend for a second day (if it remains there through the close next Monday, it will reset to a trading range).


GLD was down 1 ½%, finishing below its 100 day moving average (now resistance), below its 200 day moving average for the second day (now support; if it remains there through the close today, it will revert to resistance) and in a short term downtrend.  This chart continues to deteriorate.

Bottom line: the Trump/GOP sweep rally continued yesterday---kind of.  The Dow was strong, the S&P not so much and the NASDAQ not at all. The VIX was up. All of which is a bit confusing.  Still there has been an enormous uplifting of Market psychology.  So while the current overbought condition of the Market may need a couple of days of consolidation, the assumption has to be that stocks are going higher until this explosion of positivity subsides.  That could make me wrong that the indices will not successfully challenge their all-time highs.  Even if it does, I continue to believe that the upper boundaries of their long term uptrends will not be surpassed.
           
            Legend high frequency trader exits the business (medium):

    Fundamental

       Headlines

            There was only one economic release yesterday:  weekly jobless claims fell more than expected.  Nothing overseas.

            Of course, even if there had been more, they would have been totally overshadowed by (1) the continuing political love fest and (2) investors rushing to adjust future economic and corporate profit expectations in light of the Trump victory/GOP sweep.  The latter being driven by the proposed Trump agenda and the likelihood of achieving given republican control of congress.  I have spent a lot of time discussing this subject, so I give you the thoughts of others.

            Trump sets forth policy goals (medium and a must read):
           
            Could the Trump presidency lead to an even bigger bubble? (medium)

            Pause, reflect and act carefully (short):

            The latest from Stanley Druckenmiller (medium):

            Bottom line: consensus is that the Trump election/GOP sweep election will have a positive impact on the economy (with which I agree).  That is the good news.  However, some of the Donald’s proposed policies are not economically upbeat [trade and increased deficit spending].  In addition, long interest rates are getting pounded.  To be clear, normally, in an improving economy, stock prices and bond yield can rise together.  So on the surface there is nothing unusual or sinister in this pin action. 

But these are not normal times.  Price discovery in the fixed income market has been distorted by QE, ZIRP etc.; and Trump has made it clear that he views that as a negative.  So if monetary policy in headed for normalization and the Fed gets out of the way of interest rate price discovery, no one knows what is going to happen because no one has ever been in this situation before.  But if Newton was correct (for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction) then the effect on equity prices of an irresponsibly easy Fed could very well be reversed by a tightening in monetary policy.  This has been a potential negative that I have emphasized continuously over the last four years. 
Just to be clear where I stand: Trump’s proposed economic agenda will have a major positive impact on the economy.  I will almost assuredly revise our 2017 forecast up.  I might even have to revise the long term secular economic growth rate assumption in our Models.  And that in turn would shift our Fair Value calculations for the Averages and individual stocks.  The problem is, even if I did all of that, current Market valuations are still way too high largely as a result of central bank malfeasance.  My thesis has been and remains that once that malfeasance is corrected, equities will get repriced---down.

            My thought for the day: it is never clear what causes market corrections (witness my narrative over the last two and half years) but without them many of the best performing long term investors would never have achieved their outstanding returns.

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The case for pardoning Hillary (short):

  International War Against Radical Islam


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1 comment:

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