As you can see, the S&P bounced off its 200 day moving average and didn’t look back until both the 100 and 200 day moving averages reverted from resistance to support and a very short term downtrend had been successfully challenged. It is now back within the trading range going back to June of this year but still has some work to do before it challenges the upper boundary of that trading range. That said, the Dow will reset its short term trend back to up today barring a 150 point decline. Unless that occurs, the Averages will then be out of sync and we will just have to wait to see which trend prevails.
There is not a lot of good to say about the TLT chart. The long Treasury is now below its 100 day moving average (now resistance), the 200 day moving average (now resistance, in a short term trading range (reset on Friday), below the lower boundary of its intermediate term uptrend (if it remains there through the close today, it will reset to a trading range). The only support between its current price and the lower boundary of its long term uptrend is the newly reset lower boundary of its short term trading range. The uglier this gets, the greater the pressure on the equity discount factor.
GLD is another terrible looking chart. It is now below its 100 and 200 day moving averages (both resistance), is in short term downtrend (near its lower boundary) and save for a couple of Fibonacci retracement levels has little support between its current price and the lower boundary of its intermediate term trading range, circa 100.
As to be expected, the VIX got whacked last week as stocks soared. It finished the week below its 100 day moving average (now resistance), below its 200 day moving average (now support; if it remains there through the close on Wednesday, it will revert to resistance) and within a short term downtrend. However, it continues in a very short term uptrend. I said this the last time the VIX challenged its very short term uptrend and I will say it again---if that uptrend holds, stocks may not have a lot of upside left.
***overnight, third quarter Japanese GDP came in ahead of estimates while household spending and capital investment were flat; October Chinese retail sales and industrial output were below expectations while fixed asset investment was in line.
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