The question is, which is the head fake? The S&P break above the upper boundary of the recent short term trading range or Friday’s waterfall formation? We will know soon enough.
The long Treasury finished above the upper boundary of its intermediate term trading range for the second day; if it remains there through the close on Tuesday, it will reset to an uptrend. That suggests a weak economy and no rate hike.
GLD is clearly acting better but still has much work to do to get back into an uptrend. This better performance indicates that GLD investors are betting on a poor economic outlook and no rate hike.
The VIX did a moonshot on Friday after having bounced off the lower boundary of its short term trading range for the fifth time earlier in the week. It is about to challenge its 100 day moving average; if it closes above this MA for three days, it will revert from resistance to support. Not a good sign for stocks.
2000 again? (medium):
***overnight, May Chinese industrial production was in line while fixed investment and retail sales were below expectations; Fitch lowered the Japanese government credit outlook (not the rating but the outlook for the rating) from stable to negative.
Investing for Survival
Thoughts on the risk free rate of return (medium):
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
This Week’s Data
The productivity puzzle isn’t puzzling at all (medium):
Economic confidence tumbles to two year low (short):
More Hillary email mischief (medium):
The wussification of America (medium):
International War Against Radical Islam
Saudi’s extort UN (short):
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