Monday Morning Chartology
The S&P had a great week, remaining within a very short term uptrend, above its 100 day moving average (though this MA continues to decline) and is nearing a challenge of the upper boundary of its short term trading range. The ball is in the bulls’ court to bust that trading range.
The long Treasury gained some traction last week, breaking a very short term downtrend, then forming a very short term uptrend. It remains well above its 100 day moving average and the lower boundary of its short term uptrend
Gold continued to consolidate. Short term, it still looks good; but it needs to break that very short term downtrend and hold above the 114 support level.
The dollar has fallen to the lower boundary of a two year consolidation phase---which has roughly coincided with the sideways move in stocks. If this relationship holds, then a break below the support level (weaker dollar) would be a plus for stocks.
The VIX took in the snoot last week and on Friday. It remains in a very short term downtrend and below its 100 day moving average (though notice this MA is not moving lower). At 13, it is clearly close to an attractive level (10-12) to buy portfolio insurance.
I noted in the Closing Bell on Saturday that the data trend in the industrial sector over the last couple of weeks has been surprisingly upbeat and that this could be an early signal that the worst of this slowdown is over. However, I had failed to see the Friday afternoon release from the Fed, revising industrial production stats downward. Here are the numbers (medium):
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