Last week, I noted how confusing the pin action in stocks was. Friday didn’t change a thing. Intraday, the S&P touched the upper boundary of its short term downtrend and retreated. It also closed right on the level of the last lower high and the upper boundary of the very short term trading range (1812-1948) that I pointed to last week---raising the question as to whether Thursday’s higher high was a head fake. Given the Market’s recent elevated level of schizophrenia, I am not going to venture an opinion. I am still waiting for some meaningful follow through.
The long Treasury stumbled a bit last week, finishing Friday below the lower boundary of its very short term uptrend. A close there today will confirm the break. On a longer term basis, TLT remains well above its 100 day moving average and within its short term uptrend.
GLD seems to be resting after its moon shot, but is still well within very short term and short term uptrends and above its rising 100 day moving average.
The VIX rebounded on Friday, managing to recoup the break of its 100 day moving average on Thursday. However, it remained slightly below the lower boundary of a very short term uptrend. Under the rules of our price and distance discipline, this represents a confirmation of the break. However, note the three day break in late December. Bottom line, I think we need a bit more data before assuming the VIX is becoming a positive read for stocks.
G20 did nothing (medium):
***and just to put a fine point on it, Japanese PM Abe said that the government would not delay the imposition of a 10% sales tax---how’s that for fiscal stimulus?
In other news, EU February CPI was reported at -0.2%, ex food and energy -0.7%; and China eased reserve requirements, again.
Peak stupidity (medium and a must read):
Emerging market stocks are cheap (short):
Investing for Survival
Be a proactive investor.
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This Week’s Data
More on central bank insanity (medium):
International War Against Radical Islam