In the last two trading days, the S&P challenged its (1) 200 day moving average [if it closes there through the close tomorrow, it will revert from support to resistance] and its (2) 100 day moving average [if it closes there through the close tomorrow, it will revert from support to resistance]. It is also nearing the lower boundary of its short term trading range and the September high. Nothing has yet changed in the technicals, though clearly this could be a very active week.
The long Treasury bounced off the lower boundary of its very short term trading range---not really indicative of worries over higher interest rates. It does remain below its 100 day moving average (not good) but within trading ranges very short term, short term and intermediate term.
On Friday, GLD (103.5) broke below the lower boundary of its short term trading range; if it remains there through the close tomorrow, it will re-set to a downtrend. The lower boundary of its long term downtrend is circa 97.
In the last two days of the trading week, oil fell 6%, breaking and confirming the challenge of the lower boundary of its very short term trading range. It is now headed for recent lows.
The VIX rose significantly, challenging tis 100 day moving average and the upper boundary of its short term downtrend. It remains within an intermediate term trading range.
With 90% of the S&P companies reporting, aggregate earnings are down 2.4%.
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Why the stock market has to go down:
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This Week’s Data
The November NY Fed manufacturing index came in at -10.74 versus expectations of -5.0.
Job openings and the unemployment rate (medium):
***overnight, Japanese third quarter GDP fell 0.8% and the second quarter figure was revised down to -0.7%; the ECB said that nine large EU banks have a cumulative capital shortfall of $1.9 billion.
Imports at the three largest US ports fell in September and October.
A look at the ‘service’ economy (short):
The immigration problem in Europe continues to grow (medium):