Monday, August 31, 2015

Monday Morning Chartology

The Morning Call

8/31/15

The Market
         
    Technical

            I don’t need to point out that the S&P had an extraordinarily volatile week.  However, it ended as it had begun the week---below its 100 and 200 day moving averages and in a short term downtrend.  I marked the 1970 level which many technicians are watching as a critical level.



            The long Treasury has a rough week, negating a very short term uptrend.  However, as I have been discussing, much of the poor pin action has been a function liquidation of Treasuries by the Chinese and emerging market central banks---not the expectation of improving economic activity.  Although it clearly presents a dilemma to the Fed because these transactions are effectively a tightening of Fed policy.



            GLD was up 1% on Friday, reversing Thursday’s challenge of the lower boundary of its very short term uptrend.  The bounce is a positive sign that a bottom may have been made.  Given the volatility of late, I am hesitant to get too jiggy about this.  But I am now watching for an entry point.



            Oil is challenging the upper boundary of its short term downtrend; if it remains there through the close on Tuesday, the trend will re-set to a trading range.   Like GLD, it may be trying to make a bottom. 



            The VIX appears to be telling us that there is a lot more volatility to come; meaning patience.  And whether you are a bull or a bear, make our bets small whatever you do.



    Fundamental

      Investing for Survival

            Never invest in something that you don’t understand (short):
   
    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
 
Economics

   This Week’s Data

   Other

            Update on big four economic indicators (medium):

            Real household net worth (short):

            China steps up its drive to cower anyone selling stock (medium):

            But has lots more problems than a falling stock market (medium):

            More on emerging markets credit problems (medium):

Politics

  Domestic

Trumponomics (short):

US ranking on the ‘freedom’ index (short):

  International War Against Radical Islam

            Ten questions for Obama on the Iranian nuke deal (medium):

            Ukraine starting to heat up again (medium):





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