Thursday, April 9, 2015

The Morning Call---A central banker with cojones


The Morning Call

4/9/15

The Market
           
    Technical

The indices (DJIA 17902, S&P 2081) eked out a gain yesterday.  As a result, the Dow closed above the lower boundary of its very short term uptrend and its 100 day moving average.  While the S&P remained below the lower boundary, but above its 100 day moving average.   Both failed again to climb above their prior highs, leaving open the possibility of setting a second lower high. 

Longer term, the indices remained well within their uptrends across all timeframes: short term (16927-19704, 1978-2953), intermediate term (17022-22158, 1789-2551 and long term (5369-18860, 797-2122).  

Volume was flat but at a very low level; breadth improved slightly.  The VIX fell 5% (a lot more than I would have expected on modestly positive pin action), ending within its short term trading range, its intermediate term downtrend, its long term trading range, below its 50 day moving average and within a developing pennant formation.  At lower prices it makes an even more reasonably priced hedge. 

The long Treasury rose.  It ended within its short term trading range, intermediate and long term uptrends and above its 50 day and 100 moving averages.  While TLT seems to have stabilized, it is still couldn’t get above its prior high.

GLD’s price fell, but still finished within its short and intermediate term trading ranges, its long term downtrend and above its 50 day moving average.  GLD may have put in a low, but still has a number of tough resistance levels yet to overcome to prove that case.

Bottom line: yesterday’s modest rise did little to dispel the short term opacity of the Averages’ technicals.  So it leaves open the question I raised yesterday as to whether we are in the midst of a topping process or simply consolidating before another move to the upside.  If the latter, I continue to believe that the upper boundaries of the indices long term uptrends represent formidable resistance.  Long term, the indices remain solidly within their uptrends; but the lower boundaries of their short term uptrends are some distance away.
           
            Updated seventh year and preelection year charts (short):

    Fundamental
   
       Headlines

            Another day of virtually no US economic dataflow: weekly mortgage and purchase applications were up while the speeches of FOMC members and the minutes of the last FOMC meeting amounted to a whole lot of nothing.

            Monitoring the bubble risk in the market (medium):

            However overseas, there was a flurry of activity:

(1)   the Bank of Japan gave a high five to its QEInfinity policy.  Clearly, a response to the latest report on its success (that’s a joke) (medium):

(2)   in more currency devaluation bank news, the Swiss government issued a 10 year note at a negative yield,

And an affiliated problem---declining liquidity in the EU bond market (medium):

This is embarrassing---a look at Russia’s central banker who makes Yellen look     like an amateur (medium):

(3)   German factory orders were well below expectations---the first disappointing news out of the EU in a couple of weeks,

(4)   Saudi Arabia jacked up its oil production, which could bring an end to the recent stabilization in oil prices.  It is also likely to piss off the Iranians who are hoping Obama will be dumb enough to lift sanctions on their own production and could prove to be another nail in the US fracking coffin---but think of all the ‘unmitigated positives’.

***overnight, German March industrial production rose and February exports improved; plus Greece repaid a loan to the IMF.

And the Greeks come up with a new theory on not repaying debt (medium):

Bottom line: it seems like the only central banker with the balls to raise conduct monetary policy for the long term good of the country is a woman and a Russian.  Of course, she works for a guy that has plenty of balls---an item that our political class is woefully short of. 

 Here, our own crowd is either too confused or too scared to talk straight about its biggest monetary experiment in history and its potential consequences.  Meanwhile, the rest of world’s central bankers are blindly following behind like it’s the Pied Piper of Hamlin.  No thoughts on the misallocation of capital, the mispricing of assets and the fact that QE has brought no extended benefits to their respective economies no matter how much money they print. 

Indeed, the only long term value to this money for nothing policy has accrued to the bankers, speculators, prop trading desks and carry traders.  Of course, you might consider them worthy of such largess given their role in the last financial crisis.  I consider it deplorable and believe that eventually all will agree when the experiment finally ends.  In the meantime, investors continue to believe that the easier the monetary policy, the more valuable the future earnings of corporations.  I believe that they are in for a rude awakening.

I can’t emphasize strongly enough that I believe that the key investment strategy today is to take advantage of the current high prices to sell any stock that has been a disappointment or no longer fits your investment criteria and to trim the holding of any stock that has doubled or more in price.

Bear in mind, this is not a recommendation to run for the hills.  Our Portfolios are still 55-60% invested and their cash position is a function of individual stocks either hitting their Sell Half Prices or their underlying company failing to meet the requisite minimum financial criteria needed for inclusion in our Universe.

      Investing for Survival

            The power of not knowing (medium):


       Company Highlights

Pepsico Inc. is a global participant in the soft drink, snack food, ready to eat cereals and rice and pasta products.  Its brand names include Pepsi, Mountain Dew, Gatorade, Tropicana, Sierra Mist, Aquafina, Lay’s, Doritos, Tostitos, Cheetos, Ruffles, Walker’s, Smith’s and Sabrita’s.  The company has grown profits and dividends at an 8-14% pace over the last 10 years earning a 25-30% return on equity.  PEP should continue to grow at an above average rate because:

(1) a strong brand recognition,

(2) rapidly expanding international sales. PEP is aggressively introducing its products into China, India, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America,

(3) improving productivity by increasing its merchandising effectiveness and lowering costs,

            (4) aggressive marketing and brand building.

(5) new product innovation,

(6) stock buyback program.

Negatives:

(1) sluggish beverage growth in North America,

(2) rising raw material costs,

(3) economic uncertainty impacts consumer spending.

PEP is rated A++ by Value Line, has a 50% debt to equity ratio and its stock yields 2.8%.

  Statistical Summary

                 Stock      Dividend         Payout      # Increases  
                Yield      Growth Rate     Ratio        Since 2005

PEP           2.8%           6%               54              10
Ind Ave      2.5             9                  50             NA 

                Debt/                          EPS Down       Net        Value Line
                 Equity         ROE      Since 2005      Margin       Rating

PEP            50                31%            2                  11%         A++
Ind Ave      36                22              NA                13           NA
   
     Chart

            Note: PEP stock made good progress off its January 2009 low, surpassing the downtrend off its January 2008 high (straight red line) and the November 2008 trading high (green line).     Long term, the stock is in an uptrend (blue lines).  Intermediate term, it is in an uptrend (purple lines).  Short term, it is in a trading range (brown line).  The wiggly red line is the 100 day moving average.  The Dividend and Aggressive Growth Portfolios own full positions in PEP.  The upper boundary of its Buy Value Range is $79; the lower boundary of the Sell Half Range is $105.




4/15


      News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
 
Economics

   This Week’s Data

            The minutes from the last FOMC meeting were released yesterday afternoon.  As expected, they included much of the ‘on the one hand, on the other hand’ wishy washy blather signifying nothing.  If you can endure the torture, here are the minutes:

            Weekly jobless claims rose 14,000 versus estimates of up 17,000.

   Other

            The US’s fiscal black hole (medium and today’s must read:

           

           

Politics

  Domestic

  International War Against Radical Islam

            Iran parks two warships next to US aircraft carriers (medium):






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