Monday Morning Chartology
The S&P had a great week. It ended above its 50 day moving average, above its mid-December high and above the upper boundary of its long term uptrend for the fourth day. A close above that boundary today will confirm the break. Remember that the Dow has to be in sync to change the overall trend and it still has 700 points on the upside to go.
The long Treasury’s chart remains a bit damaged. TLT closed the week below its 50 day moving average, below the lower boundary of its short term uptrend (the break will be confirmed at the Market close today if it finishes below that boundary) and within a very short term downtrend. Still it is solidly within both intermediate and long term uptrends which is a plus for bond investors.
GLD finished right on the lower boundary of its short term uptrend. A close below that level with result in the sale of the remainder of our Portfolios holdings. However, a bounce may prompt me to reinvest the funds Sold at the Stop Loss Price (the short horizontal purple line). GLD also ended below its 50 day moving average, within its intermediate term trading range and within a very short term downtrend.
The VIX sold off last week, reflecting improving stock prices. It is now below its 50 day moving average, within a short term trading range and an intermediate term downtrend.
I have spent a good deal of time in these pages noodling over whether a decline in oil prices is good or bad for the economy. This author reverses the process and speculates about whether lower oil prices are a signal of what is happening in the economy (medium):
The recently announced EU QE is set to start in March; the ECB problem is apt to be finding sellers (medium):
Investing for Survival
Three important investing rules (medium):
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
This Week’s Data
The January Chicago National Activity Index came in at .13 versus expectations of .15; the December reading was revised down.
Baltic Dry Index at new lows; third dry shipper goes bankrupt (short):
International War Against Radical Islam