Friday, October 17, 2014

The Morning Call & Subscriber Alert--At last, some good economic news

The Morning Call

10/17/14

The Market
           
    Technical

            While the indices (DJIA 16117, S&P 1862) ended the day near the unchanged level, we still had a lot of volatility intraday.  The Dow closed within a short term downtrend (15829-16900), an intermediate term trading range (15132-17158) and a long term uptrend (5148-18484).    It also ended below its 200 day moving average.

The S&P finished within a short term downtrend (1816-1947), an intermediate term trading range (1740-2019), a long term uptrend (771-2020) and below its 200 day moving average.

Volume declined; breadth was mixed.  The VIX fell, ending within a short term uptrend.  It also closed above the upper boundary of its intermediate term downtrend for a second day; if it remains above this boundary through the bell on Monday, the intermediate term trend will re-set to a trading range. It also finished above its 50 day moving average.  

            The long Treasury fell but remained within very short term and short term uptrends, an intermediate term trading range and above its 50 day moving average.

            GLD was up again, continuing its progress off the lower boundary of its long term trading range.  It is currently within a very short term trading range but short and intermediate term downtrends and below its 50 day moving average.

Bottom line: we finally got a day of relatively positive news flow, allowing the Averages to avoid another rough day.  However, we didn’t get the upside follow through from an oversold condition that I had expected.  The inability to gain any momentum to the upside from an oversold condition in the face of some very positive economic data argues against a bottom having been made. 

Therefore, I would resist any temptation to spend cash; and if we do get a lift in the Market, I would be lightening up on all positions that are overpriced or the underlying company’s fundamentals are deteriorating.
           
            Was Wednesday the bottom? (medium):

    Fundamental

       Headlines

            Yesterday’s US economic news was very upbeat: weekly jobless claims fell more than expected, September industrial production smoked its forecast and the October Philly Fed manufacturing index was slightly better than anticipated.  These figures clearly make patience easier as I contemplate revising our forecast lower; but if they are outliers and the trend of poor numbers continues, then a less sanguine outlook seems inevitable.

            ***overnight, the ECB said that it would start asset purchases within days (as if); and in its latest QE move, the BOJ was unable to buy all the bonds that it wanted (mainly because it already owns them).

            Investors’ mood was also helped by the absence of negative data or geopolitical news from overseas and no new Ebola victims in the US.

Bottom line: the upbeat employment and industrial production numbers notwithstanding, the trend in economic news remains discouraging.  To be sure, yesterday’s stats could mark a turnaround; but it is clearly too soon to be getting jiggy.  In the absence of better data, the expectation should be for a lot of downward revisions in forecasts.  Couple that with a Market that remains very rich on a valuation basis (Year End Fair Value is circa S&P 1480) and the disappearance of the ‘buy the dippers’, and I remain content to count our cash and do nothing.

My bottom line is that for current prices to continue to hold, it requires a perfect outcome to the numerous problems facing the US and global economies AND investor willingness to accept the compression of future potential returns into current prices.

 I can’t emphasize strongly enough that I believe that the key investment strategy today is to take advantage of the current high prices to sell any stock that has been a disappointment or no longer fits your investment criteria and to trim the holding of any stock that has doubled or more in price.

            Bear in mind, this is not a recommendation to run for the hills.  Our Portfolios are still 55-60% invested and their cash position is a function of individual stocks either hitting their Sell Half Prices or their underlying company failing to meet the requisite minimum financial criteria needed for inclusion in our Universe.
              
            The easy money market is probably over (medium):

            All of these are must reads:

            The latest from Mohamed El Erian (medium):

            The latest from Lance Roberts (medium):

            The latest from Jim Rogers (medium):

       Subscriber Alert


            The stock price of Apple (AAPL-$96) has declined into its Buy Value Range.  Accordingly, it is being Added to the Aggressive Growth Buy List.  No shares will be purchased at this time.

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