Thursday, October 30, 2014

Brown Forman (BF.B) 2014 Review

Brown Forman (BFB) produces and markets Jack Daniel’s, Southern Comfort, Finlandia, Canadian Mist, and Korbel.  The company has earned a 20-25%+ return on equity and grown profits and dividends between 10% and 11% over the past 10 years.   Historically, BFB has managed to increase earnings per share through even the toughest economic period and should continue to do so as a result of:

(1) the competitive advantage offered by its strong portfolio of brands,

(2) geographic expansion into developed [France] as well as emerging [Russia, Poland, Mexico] markets,

(3) broadening of its Jack Daniels product offerings [Gentleman Jack, Jack Daniels Single Barrel],

(4) a stock buyback program.

Negatives:

(1) its products are sensitive to economic developments,

(2) a highly competitive industry,

(3) distilled spirits are subject to excise taxes in various countries; increases can have an adverse effect on the company’s financial results,

(4) increasingly hostile business environment in Russia.

Brown Forman is rated A+ by Value Line, has a 40% debt to equity ratio and its stock yields 1.3%

    Statistical Summary

                 Stock     Dividend         Payout      # Increases  
                 Yield      Growth Rate     Ratio       Since 2004

BFB           1.3%          7%               32%              10
Ind Ave      2.3             10                38                 NA 

                Debt/                        EPS Down       Net        Value Line
              Equity         ROE         Since 2004      Margin       Rating

BFB          40%           28%            1                 24             A+
Ind Ave     37              24              NA               14            NA

       Chart

            Note;  BFB stock made great progress off its March 2009 low, quickly surpassing the downtrend off its August 2008 high (straight red line) and the November 2008 trading high (green line).  Long term it is in an uptrend (blue lines).  Intermediates term it is in an uptrend (purple lines).  The wiggly red line is the 50 day moving average.  The Dividend Growth Portfolio owns a full position in BFB but that is due to Selling Half in mid 2012 and the stock continuing to rise (reminder, our discipline is to only Sell Half once).  The upper boundary of its Buy Value Range is $36; the lower boundary of its Sell Half Range is $65.

    

10/14

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