Tuesday, July 29, 2014

The Morning Call--The economic picture should become clearer this week

The Morning Call

7/29/14

The Market
           
    Technical

            After a down opening, the indices (DJIA 16982, S&P 1978) spent the day recovering, ending almost flat on the day.  They remain above their 50 day moving averages (the Dow touched its average in early trading then bounced) and within uptrends across all time frames: short (16232-17711, 1919-2085), intermediate (16624-20922, 1862-2662) and long (5101-18464, 762-1999). 

            Volume was flat; breadth improved slightly.  The VIX fell, finishing below its 50 day moving average and within short and intermediate term downtrends.

            The long Treasury declined slightly, finishing above its 50 day moving average and within its short term uptrend and intermediate term trading range.

            GLD dropped but closed above its 50 day moving average and within its short term trading range and intermediate term downtrend.

Bottom line: the ‘buy the dip’pers are still with us; but the list of stocks that they are buying is narrowing.  Historically, that is not a good sign for the market.  Of course, the laggards can always catch up.  But until that starts to happen, the caution level escalates.

Our strategy remains to do nothing save taking advantage of the current momentum to lighten up on stocks whose prices are pushed into their Sell Half Range or whose underlying company’s fundamentals have deteriorated.


            Andrew Thrasher’s weekly technical update (medium):

            The narrowing breadth of the NASDAQ (short):

            Update on stock performance in sixth year of the presidential cycle (short):

            Margin debt surges in June (short):


    Fundamental
  
     Headlines

            We received three secondary US economic indicators yesterday: the July Markit service flash PMI was slightly ahead of forecasts as was the Dallas Fed July manufacturing index; the bad news was June pending home sales were negative.  These stats do little to alter our outlook; however, they start a week of heavy activity in the economic sphere.  We should have a clearer picture of the economy by week’s end.

            Overseas, several reports indicate that the Chinese government is again supplying liquidity and cash to local banks.  If this is a full QE, then global equity investors will certainly cheer.  Indeed, it appears that the Chinese stock markest are breaking out of four year downtrends.  Whether this washes over into our Market remains to be seen.

Bottom line: this will be a busy week.  The FOMC meets today and will have its usual policy statement tomorrow.  Yellen has made it clear that the Fed isn’t going to tighten until the bond market absolutely forces it to; so there should be no surprises.  However, were Yellen to pronounce that employment had improved to the point where tightening could begin, that would likely weigh heavily on equities.

In addition, we get the first reading on second quarter GDP along with July nonfarm payrolls and June personal income and spending. These datapoints should give us a better read on the economy and help remove some of my current level of uncertainty.

My bottom line is that for current prices to hold, it requires a perfect outcome to the numerous problems facing the US and global economies AND investor willingness to accept the compression of future potential returns into current prices.

 I can’t emphasize strongly enough that I believe that the key investment strategy today is to take advantage of the current high prices to sell any stock that has been a disappointment or no longer fits your investment criteria and to trim the holding of any stock that has doubled or more in price.

            Bear in mind, this is not a recommendation to run for the hills.  Our Portfolios are still 55-60% invested and their cash position is a function of individual stocks either hitting their Sell Half Prices or their underlying company failing to meet the requisite minimum financial criteria needed for inclusion in our Universe.
        
            It is a cautionary note not to chase this rally.


      Investing for Survival

            Emerging market sovereign debt looks attractive (medium):


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