The Morning Call
6/30/14
The Market
Technical
Monday Morning Chartology
What
is there to say about this chart? All
systems go.
The
long bond has recovered the lower boundary of its short term uptrend. The issue is, were those two violations of
that boundary head fakes or has the short term trend re-set to a trading
range? The best positive indicator would
be an advance to above 115 (establishing a higher high). An inability to do that would then set up
113.2 level as a lower high; and if followed by another confirmed break below
the lower boundary of the short term uptrend, it would pretty much nail the
change in trend. If that occurs, it
would add weight to the ‘coming inflation’ thesis.
After
breaking out of its short term downtrend and re-setting to a short term trading
range, GLD has done zip. That makes me a
little skeptical of the break. However,
it is above its 50 day moving average.
While it is now supporting the ‘coming inflation’ thesis, a failure to
advance further would call this notion into question.
It would seem
that TLT and GLD are both hesitating over whether inflation is upon us or
not. I need both to confirm before I feel
comfortable with that expectation.
The
VIX remains near historical lows.
Update
on margin debt (short):
Fundamental
The
latest from the Bank of International Settlements (a bit long but a must read):
The
latest from Ukraine (or not) (medium):
The
latest from Iraq (medium):
Goldman on the latest
data on the Japanese economy (medium):
And BofA on the end of
the Japanese carry trade (medium):
The global hunt for taxes
(medium):
Central
banks are buying stocks (medium):
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Economics
This Week’s Data
Other
Politics
Domestic
International War Against Radical Islam
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