Friday, May 9, 2014

The Morning Call--Yellen believes that she is being helpful

The Morning Call

5/9/14

The Market
           
    Technical

            The indices (DJIA 16550 [up], S&P 1875 [down]) had another volatile day.  Both ended above their respective 50 day moving averages and their April lows---leaving them in very short term uptrends.  On a more sober note, the Dow rose to and touched its all-time high and backed off for the fourth time; the S&P continued to build a head and shoulders formation.

The S&P closed within uptrends across all timeframes: short (1828-1995), intermediate (1780-2580) and long (739-1910).  The Dow remains within short (15330-16601) and intermediate (14696-16601) term trading ranges and a long term uptrend (5055-17405).  They continue out of sync in their short and intermediate term trends.

Volume declined; breadth was mixed.  The VIX rose fractionally, closing within its short term trading range, below its 50 day moving average and within an intermediate term downtrend.

            More divergences:

            The long Treasury was down, after a poor 30 year bond auction.  I am not sure how to interpret this in the light of its recent performance; but I wasn’t sure why bond prices were rising in the first place.  I worry that there is information in its pin action and I am too stupid to figure it out; so TLT will remain at the top of my list of indicators to watch

            GLD was unchanged and ugly.  It is in short and intermediate term downtrends and below its 50 day moving average.

Bottom line: the technicals continue to become more muddled which is reflected in the current highly volatile but directionless Market.  The Averages are bouncing off both resistance and support levels like a pinball.

While that says nothing about the direction in which prices resolve themselves, my default position in situations like this is to stick with the major trends of the senior indices which are flat (Dow, though it is close to breaking above the upper boundary of a trading range) to up (S&P), recognizing that the breakdown in the small cap averages is likely telling us something about future direction. 

In the end, what I think about the ultimate direction the Market takes is a lot less important than recognizing that, at the moment, any opinion about direction is nothing more than a wild assed guess---which is a big determinant of our strategy to do nothing save taking advantage of the current momentum to lighten up on stocks whose prices are pushed into its Sell Half Range or whose underlying company’s fundamentals have deteriorated.

                        The latest from Stock Trader’s Almanac (short):

                        Update on sentiment (short):

    Fundamental

     Headlines

            Yesterday’s US economic data was upbeat: weekly jobless claims and April chain store sales were better than expected.  Overseas, the April Chinese trade data was much improved from March and the ECB left rates unchanged.

            On the latter, it is important to note that the issue with the ECB is whether they lower rates---exactly the opposite of the US, Japanese and Chinese central banks.  The ECB’s problem being potential recession/deflation.  Of course, as I have tried to cover in these notes, any decline in rates/easier money policy is not likely to be any more effective at stimulating EU growth than it has been in the US or Japan---for many of the same reasons: (1) over leveraged banks too fearful to lend and cautious businesses and tapped out consumers unwilling to borrow (2) the negative impact of higher imported oil [raw material] prices more than offsetting the benefit of cheaper exports.  In short, if the ECB lowered rates, it would simply be joining in the largely ineffective global QE circle jerk.

            Here is more analysis of the ECB’s latest non-move and Draghi’s press conference (medium):

            Yellen completed her testimony before the senate without injecting anymore confusion into the Fed’s monetary policy than was already there.  I continue to believe that she is blowing smoke up all our collective skirts by mouthing easy money while continuing to taper.  What’s more, she will almost assuredly continue to do so as long as the majority believes her bullshit.

            This is an excellent analysis of Fed policy (or lack thereof) and Market expectations (medium and today’s must read):

            Putin continues his strategy of world domination (just kidding), re-establishing the boundaries of the former Soviet Union and garnering the adulation of the Russian people.  Meanwhile, the US dreams about stopping him by applying sanctions to which the Europeans and likely the rest of the world will at best pay lip service.  My bottom line remains that Putin will get what he wants, when he wants it and from whom he wants it.

            Latest from Ukraine:

Bottom line: the economy continues to plug along; the global central bankers, with the notable exception of the Chinese, are living in a dream world in which they believe their policies are not only helpful but can be fine-tuned.  While in times past, central bank policies have been a positive, they certainly aren’t now and fine tuning is a skill these guys have never learned. 

Nonetheless, investors hang on their every syllable, written or spoken, and, in effect, create an environment in which not fighting the Fed becomes a self-fulfilling prophesy.  At some point, either the bond and/or currency markets will call bullshit on QEInfinity or one of the gross mispricing of asset bubbles will explode in the central bankers’ face. The question is, is the recent bond market pin action a precursor of the former?

My bottom line is that for current prices to hold, it requires a perfect outcome to the numerous problems facing the US and global economies AND investor willingness to accept the compression of future potential returns into current prices.

 I can’t emphasize strongly enough that I believe that the key investment strategy today is to take advantage of the current high prices to sell any stock that has been a disappointment or no longer fits your investment criteria and to trim the holding of any stock that has doubled or more in price.

            Bear in mind, this is not a recommendation to run for the hills.  Our Portfolios are still 55-60% invested and their cash position is a function of individual stocks either hitting their Sell Half Prices or their underlying company failing to meet the requisite minimum financial criteria needed for inclusion in our Universe.
        
            It is a cautionary note not to chase this rally.
               
            Update on the Macro Markets Risk Index (short):

            What kills bull markets (medium)?

            The latest from Marc Faber:

No comments:

Post a Comment