Friday, May 30, 2014

The Morning Call---Is analysis useful anymore?

The Morning Call

5/30/14

The Market
           
    Technical

            The indices (DJIA 16698, S&P 1920) had a decent day.  They both remain above their recent all-time highs; both are above their 50 day moving averages.  The Dow again closed above the upper boundaries of its short (15330-16601) and intermediate (14696-16601) trading ranges.  As a result, the short term trend re-set from a trading range to an uptrend (16021-17500).  A finish above 16601 today will re-set the intermediate term trend to up.  Its long term uptrend is now defined by 5081-18193.

            The S&P remains within uptrends across all trends: short (1854-2021), intermediate (1803-2603) and long (748-1960).

            Volume fell even closer to zero; breadth improved.  The VIX declined, finishing within short and intermediate term downtrends and below its 50 day moving average.

            The long Treasury was lower.  However, it remained above the upper boundary of its intermediate term downtrend for the third day.  A similar close today will re-set that trend to a trading range.  It also closed within very short and short term uptrends and above its 50 day moving average.

                And:

            GLD continues to drift lower, remaining within very short, short and intermediate term downtrends and below its 50 day moving average.  The lower boundary of its long term trading range (114.4) looms ahead.

Bottom line:  the Averages continued their advance toward the upper boundaries of their long term uptrend, though divergences continue to exist.   Of course, price is truth; but the truth is that a limited number of large cap stocks are at highs and could go higher while the remaining universe of stocks are not; all of this on historically anemic volume.  As you know, I think that unless this ‘remaining universe’ catches up to the indices, it will likely act as a governor to the upward momentum of the Averages.

 Our strategy remains to do nothing save taking advantage of the current momentum to lighten up on stocks whose prices are pushed into their Sell Half Range or whose underlying company’s fundamentals have deteriorated.

    Fundamental
    
     Headlines

            Yesterday’s US economic news was mixed: revised first quarter GDP fell 1% and April pending home sales were below expectations while weekly jobless claims and revised first quarter corporate profits were above estimate.  Most investor attention focused on (1) the GDP number which pundit after pundit pronounced as irrelevant because, you know, it was cold in January and February.  Who woulda thunk? and (2) weekly jobless claims because it is a true barometer of the economy.  What few investors there are that give a shit and aren’t asleep or on vacation were apparently pleased.

            On the international scene, most of the chatter is about the coming ECB meeting in which most experts seem to think that it will ease monetary policy.  Not mentioned is the failure of easy money to help the US or Japanese economies; or the ongoing flush in the Chinese real estate market; or the ongoing violence in Ukraine and the rapidly approaching gas price negotiations with Russia:
            http://www.cnbc.com/id/101716895

            ***overnight, Japan reported terrible household spending, industrial production and inflation numbers.

            And in China, developers are now offering ‘buy one floor, get one free’:

Bottom line: it seems useless to read the news or analyze the impact of reported events because everything is positive (or irrelevant).   As long as this mindset prevails, any contrary analysis is meaningless---at least to the price of stocks.  Someday this will all end either as a result of an event that hits the Market in the mouth and can no longer be ignored or rationalized away or, more benignly, because that last greater fool spends his last dollar to buy stocks. 

My bottom line is that for current prices to hold, it requires a perfect outcome to the numerous problems facing the US and global economies AND investor willingness to accept the compression of future potential returns into current prices.

 I can’t emphasize strongly enough that I believe that the key investment strategy today is to take advantage of the current high prices to sell any stock that has been a disappointment or no longer fits your investment criteria and to trim the holding of any stock that has doubled or more in price.

            Bear in mind, this is not a recommendation to run for the hills.  Our Portfolios are still 55-60% invested and their cash position is a function of individual stocks either hitting their Sell Half Prices or their underlying company failing to meet the requisite minimum financial criteria needed for inclusion in our Universe.
        
            It is a cautionary note not to chase this rally.

            The chase for yield (medium and a must read):

            The latest from Lance Roberts (medium):

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