Wednesday, May 21, 2014

The Morning Call---As always, the key is follow through

The Morning Call

5/21/14

The Market
           
    Technical

            Yesterday was not a good day for the indices (DJIA 16374, S&P 1872).  First of all, gone was what has become the usual Tuesday ramp in prices created by the Fed pouring money into bank reserves (QEInfinity).  Then, the Dow fell below its 50 day moving average and broke the recent string of higher lows.  Nonetheless, it remains within its short (15330-16601) and intermediate (14696-16601) term trading ranges and within a long term uptrend (5055-17405). 

The good news was that while down, not quite as much damage was done to the S&P.  It closed above its 50 day moving average, its trend of higher lows remained intact; and it finished within uptrends across all timeframes: short (1839-2006), intermediate (1790-2590) and long (739-1910).  They remain out of sync in their short and intermediate term trends and their 50 day moving averages.

            Volume was even worse than Monday’s pathetic performance; breadth was lousy.  The VIX rose, ending within a short term trading range, below its 50 day moving average and within an intermediate term downtrend.

Number of days without a correction (short):

            The long Treasury was up but remained below the upper boundary of its intermediate term downtrend.   It is still in a short term uptrend and well above its 50 day moving average.

            GLD rose, but is still stuck in short and intermediate term downtrends and below its 50 day moving average.  In addition, it closed very near the tip of the pennant formation I pointed out in Monday Morning Chartology.   The direction of the move off the tip of a pennant formation historically has generally continued for some time.

Bottom line: the DJIA broke below that narrowing trading range (between all-times and 50 day moving averages) I mentioned yesterday while the S&P held.  This performance left the indices out of sync in yet another measure.  That said, all major trends of both of the Averages are still intact and will remain that way until they are not.  That says to me that our base assumption hasn’t changed: the indices will most likely challenge the upper boundaries of their long term uptrends.  But the more divergences, the more tepid that challenge is apt to be.  Our strategy remains to do nothing save taking advantage of the current momentum to lighten up on stocks whose prices are pushed into its Sell Half Range or whose underlying company’s fundamentals have deteriorated.

            Latest from Stock Traders’ Almanac (short):

    Fundamental
    
     Headlines

            Only a single economic indicator was released yesterday: weekly retail sales were mixed.

            In addition, a number of retailers released earnings and forward guidance and ‘mixed’ would not be word that I (or apparently most other investors) would use to describe those results.  ‘Lousy’ comes to mind.  The point here is that these retailers’ assessment does not match up with current economic forecasts.  Now, five or six retailers do not speak for the entire industry.  On the other hand, these were major retailers (TJX, SPLS, DKS, URBN) hence, they are clearly somewhat indicative.  So we need to start paying a little closer attention to the consumer for more signs of weakness.

            Not helping investors’ mood, two regional Fed chiefs spoke yesterday.  One (Dudley) delivered a dovish take on Fed policy, i.e. when, as and if the Fed raises rates, it won’t be as high as is generally expected.  That, of course, implies a weaker economy than is presently anticipated:

                The second (Plosser) delivered a hawkish take on Fed policy, i.e. the economy is strong and the Fed will have to raise rates quicker than the consensus believes:

            Leaving aside the issue of whether or not these guys have a clue about what Fed policy really is or if indeed there is a Fed policy, Markets hate uncertainty and nothing says uncertainty like two guys from the same committee making totally opposite statements. 

            The Fed releases the minutes from its last meeting today which have the potential to settle investor schizophrenia or make it worse. 

            No economic news from overseas; but the political fallout from Ukraine continued.

                ***overnight, the Bank of England left interest rates unchanged but sounded more hawkish (sound familiar?) while May retail sales were ahead of expectations; the Bank of Japan left rates unchanged and the April trade deficit narrowed.

            Bottom line: how many times have I said that the Fed was going to bungle the transition from easy to tight money?  Yesterday only reinforces my case.  Even if the Fed has a very specific plan and even if, all other things being equal, that plan would serve the economy perfectly, it could still blow it by completely confusing the Market (two Fed officials making dramatically different statements about Fed policy on the same day?)---and remember, my contention is that the Market not the economy is where most of the pain will be felt.

My bottom line is that for current prices to hold, it requires a perfect outcome to the numerous problems facing the US and global economies AND investor willingness to accept the compression of future potential returns into current prices.

 I can’t emphasize strongly enough that I believe that the key investment strategy today is to take advantage of the current high prices to sell any stock that has been a disappointment or no longer fits your investment criteria and to trim the holding of any stock that has doubled or more in price.

            Bear in mind, this is not a recommendation to run for the hills.  Our Portfolios are still 55-60% invested and their cash position is a function of individual stocks either hitting their Sell Half Prices or their underlying company failing to meet the requisite minimum financial criteria needed for inclusion in our Universe.
        
            It is a cautionary note not to chase this rally.
               
            Investment widowmakers (medium):

            The latest from John Hussman (medium):

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