The Morning Call
3/3/14
The Market
Technical
Monday Morning Chartology
The
S&P is in the midst of the time and distance discipline confirmation of the
break above its all time high (and upper boundary of its short term trading
range). If it remains above 1848 through
the close on Wednesday, the short term trend will re-set from a trading range
to an uptrend. Assuming that occurs, the
DJIA still remains within its short term trading range which would leave the
Averages out of sync and leave the Market trendless. If we make a best case assumption, i.e. that
the Dow will follow suit on the upside, then the next price objective (resistance
level) would be the upper boundaries of the long term uptrends (17400, 1910).
The
long Treasury invalidated a head and shoulders formation last week. It now trades in a short term trading range
and an intermediate term downtrend.
This
week, GLD hit its first rough spot in some time, though nothing that I would
characterize a major sell off or a test of its very short term uptrend. It also remains within short and intermediate
term downtrends. I still want to see a
failed challenge of that very short term uptrend before I am comfortable
betting against the two downtrends.
The
VIX sold off last week, closing below its 50 day moving average. It continues to trade within a short term
trading range and an intermediate term downtrend.
March
performance after down January and up February (short):
Update
on margin debt (short):
Update
on ‘the best stock market indicator ever’:
Fundamental
Have
investors learned anything? (medium):
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
o
Nu Skin Enterprises Inc. (NUS):
Q4 EPS of $2.02 beats by $0.05.
o
Revenue of $1.05B (+78.5% Y/Y) misses
by $20M.
·
South Jersey Industries Inc. (SJI):
Q4 EPS of $1.23 misses by $0.02.
·
Revenue of
$224.3M (+13.6% Y/Y)
Economics
This Week’s Data
Other
Yardini
on the labor force participation rate (short):
China’s
economic slowdown (medium):
Politics
Domestic
Ann Coulter on
the minimum wage (medium):
More disastrous
consequences from Obamacare (this is long but a good expose on what will likely
prove a major problem):
International
Memo
to Obama from David Stockman (medium):
Steve Cook received his education in investments from Harvard, where he earned an MBA, New York University, where he did post graduate work in economics and financial analysis and the CFA Institute, where he earned the Chartered Financial Analysts designation in 1973. His 40 years of investment experience includes institutional portfolio management at Scudder, Stevens and Clark and Bear Stearns. Steve's goal at Investing For Survival is to help other investors build wealth and benefit from the investing lessons he learned the hard way.
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