Tuesday, March 18, 2014

Medtronic (MDT) 2014 Review

Medtronic Inc. (MDT) is the world’s largest manufacturer of implantable biomedical devices in the cardiac, neurological and vascular markets. The company has grown profits and dividends 11-16% annually over the last ten years earning a return on equity of 18-20%.   Facilitating the continuation of this trend:

(1) MDT has strong R&D program and consequently has a deep product pipeline insuring strong organic growth. It expects to launch 20 new products in the next 12 months,

(2) market response to recently launched products,

(3) expansion into international markets,

(4) a stock buyback program.

Negatives:

(1)    it is in a highly competitive industry,

(2)    economic uncertainty can impact customer willingness to incur the cost of new procedures,

(3)  it is involved in several patent infringement suits.

MDT is rated A++ by Value Line, carries a 35% debt to equity ratio and its stock yields 2.1%.

   Statistical Summary

                 Stock      Dividend         Payout      # Increases  
               Yield      Growth Rate     Ratio        Since 2004

MDT         2.1%          7%                29%              10
Ind Ave      1.5            10*                26                NA 

                Debt/                       EPS Down       Net        Value Line
                Equity         ROE      Since 2004      Margin       Rating

MDT        35%            18%           0                 24%           A++
Ind Ave     25               15            NA               14              NA

*the majority of companies in MDT industry do not pay a dividend
 
     Chart

            Note: MDT stock made good initial progress off its March 2009 low, quickly surpassing the downtrend off its August 2008 high (straight red line) and the November 2008 trading high (green line).  It then traded sideways for the next two and a half years before resuming an uptrend.  Long term the stock is in an uptrend (blue lines).  Intermediate term it is in an uptrend (purple lines).  Short term, it is in an uptrend (brown line). The wiggly red line is the 50 day moving average. The Dividend Growth and Aggressive Growth Portfolios own 75% positions in MDT.  The upper boundary of its Buy Value Range is $37; the lower boundary of its Sell Half Range is $72.  


   

3/14

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