Friday, January 17, 2014

The Morning Call---Will this earnings season be different?

The Morning Call

1/17/14

The Market
           
     Technical

            The indices (DJIA 16417, S&P 1845) sank yesterday; the S&P was unable to remain above its former all time high.  This has the makings of a double top, but it is far too soon to make that call.  More likely, it was just consolidation after a big two day run.  The Averages closed within major uptrends across all timeframes: short term (15790-20790, 1792-1945), intermediate term (15790-20790, 1685-2266) and long term (5050-17400, 728-1900).

            Volume fell; breadth softened.  The VIX rose but remains near the lower boundary of its short term trading range.  It is also in an intermediate term downtrend.

            The long Treasury was up, finishing within a short term trading range and an intermediate term downtrend.

            GLD was higher, closing within short and intermediate term downtrends.  GLD is currently struggling (so far unsuccessfully) to penetrate its 50 day moving average.  If that occurs, it would add another plus to GLD’s technical picture.  If not, this will remain an ugly chart.

Bottom line:  the S&P couldn’t hold its new all time high; hence, no follow through, at least for now.  This pin action supports the notion of a schizophrenic Market; and as I noted above, it sets up a possible double top.  It is far too soon to make that call; and indeed, it would not be confirmed until/unless it closes below the 1815 level at the very least and more importantly the lower boundary of its short term uptrend (1792). 

So for the moment, we await either an assault on the upper boundaries of the Averages long term uptrends or a significant enough follow through to the downside to break the long term upward momentum. 

If one of our stocks trades into its Sell Half Range, our Portfolios will act accordingly.

            More on the January barometer (medium):
    Fundamental
    
     Headlines

            Yesterday’s US economic news remained generally positive: December CPI was in line, weekly jobless claims fell slightly and the Philly Fed manufacturing index was a bit stronger than expected.         Overseas, the EU inflation rate declined.   Hence, no surprises.

            What got the Market off on the wrong foot were disappointing earnings report from Best Buy, Goldman and Citi.  I thought this was significant in that:

(1)   the Best Buy number adds to this week’s confusing retail data.  As you know, I was not nearly as impressed with those December retail sales figures reported on Tuesday as the rest of the Market because [a] the November data was revised down big and [b] the earnings reports and forward guidance on enough retailers were mixed---providing little support for the December data.  The Best Buy report reinforces than notion,

(2)   earnings season is just starting.  If investor reaction to every earnings miss mirrors yesterday’s pin action, the next couple of weeks could be rough.

Bottom line:  yesterday’s pin action raises the question of whether this earnings season might be more volatile than investors have gotten used to.  That would fit with the schizophrenia scenario.  However, volatility is not necessarily synonymous with down.  Though it could be, given the current degree of stock overvaluation.  Whether or not it does is to be determined.  Either way, we are still left facing either a prolonged period of Market stagnation or a correction.   

I can’t emphasize strongly enough that I believe that the key investment strategy today is to take advantage of the current high prices to sell any stock that has been a disappointment or no longer fits your investment criteria and to trim the holding of any stock that has doubled or more in price.

            The other side of stock buybacks (short and a must read):

            The latest from GMO (medium):

            Thoughts on efficient markets (medium):




Steve Cook received his education in investments from Harvard, where he earned an MBA, New York University, where he did post graduate work in economics and financial analysis and the CFA Institute, where he earned the Chartered Financial Analysts designation in 1973. His 40 years of investment experience includes institutional portfolio management at Scudder, Stevens and Clark and Bear Stearns. Steve's goal at Investing For Survival is to help other investors build wealth and benefit from the investing lessons he learned the hard way.

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