Thursday, January 9, 2014

The Morning Call---The results are in but are they significant?

The Morning Call

1/9/14

The Market
           
    Technical

            Day five of the January effect and the indices (DJIA 16462, S&P 1837) were down on the day as well as for the first five days.  Nonetheless, they remain within major uptrends across all timeframes: short term (15728-20728, 1779-1932), intermediate term (15728-20728, 1676-2257) and long term (5050-17400, 728-1900).

            Volume was up; breadth deteriorated.  The VIX declined (unusual for a down price day), finishing near the lower boundary of its short term trading range.  It is also within an intermediate term downtrend.

            The long Treasury fell, continuing within a short term trading range, an intermediate term downtrend and the construction of a head and shoulders formation.

            GLD inched lower for a second day, but closed above the upper boundary of the very short term downtrend.  However, it is also within both short and intermediate term downtrends.  Without more strength to the upside, our Portfolios will remain on the sidelines.

Bottom line:  the timeframe for the January effect is over and the results are negative.  I have quoted and linked to statistical studies that suggest that this can be an ill omen for 2014 pin action. 

More on the January effect (short):

On the other hand, I also noted that most of the negative technical axioms of the Market have not delivered the specified results over the last year.  Plus there is some statistical significance to studies showing that performance in years following a 25% up years is positive. 

So there are technical cross currents that need to be accounted for over the near term.  Perhaps the most important factor at this moment is that the Averages aren’t even close to challenging the lower boundaries of any of the major uptrends.  Until that occurs, the January effect is meaningless and I have to assume that sooner or later the upper boundaries of the indices long term uptrends (17400, 1900) remain a viable target.

Nonetheless, I will continue to use any advance as an opportunity for our Portfolios to take advantage of our Sell Price Discipline.

            A study on the probability of a bear market commencing anytime soon (medium):

            Update on sentiment (short):

    Fundamental
    
     Headlines

            US economic news commanded the bulk of investor attention yesterday.  The ADP private payroll report was much better than expected; so in the world of good news is bad news (more/faster Fed tightening), this indicator got the Market off on the wrong foot and it stayed there the rest of the day.  Bear in mind that we get weekly jobless claims to day (down more than expected, see below) and December nonfarm payrolls tomorrow.  So expect more fireworks if the numbers are ‘too good’.  Weekly mortgage and purchase applications were also released---the former up, the latter down.

            The Fed also released the minutes of its last FOMC meeting.  They contained a long on-the-one-hand, on-the-other-hand discussion of Fed tapering; and concluded with the message delivered by Bernanke at the post meeting news conference---the Fed will proceed cautiously in implementing the ‘taper’.  In other words, nothing new (you will find a link to the relevant excerpts below).

            Overseas the EU unemployment number was unchanged but near a record high while the German trade surplus grew---not a great thing when it comes to intra-EU politics.

Bottom line:  the economy continues to progress in line with our forecast.  Fiscal policy remains a mess, but that is in our Models.  Monetary policy is worse; and it is here that the risk to the economy lies.

The Market risk is largely a function of extreme overvaluation and that won’t be cured by anything other than time or a correction.  Either way, I can’t emphasize strongly enough that I believe that the key investment strategy today is to take advantage of the current high prices to sell any stock that has been a disappointment or no longer fits your investment criteria and to trim the holding of any stock that has doubled or more in price.

            Investor returns (short):

            Goldman’s list of risks for 2014 (long but a must read):





Steve Cook received his education in investments from Harvard, where he earned an MBA, New York University, where he did post graduate work in economics and financial analysis and the CFA Institute, where he earned the Chartered Financial Analysts designation in 1973. His 40 years of investment experience includes institutional portfolio management at Scudder, Stevens and Clark and Bear Stearns. Steve's goal at Investing For Survival is to help other investors build wealth and benefit from the investing lessons he learned the hard way.

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