Friday, January 10, 2014

The Morning Call---OOOps. Nonfarm payrolls disappointing

The Morning Call

1/10/14

The Market
           
    Technical

            The indices (DJIA 16442, S&P 1838) turned in a mixed day (Dow down, S&P up), closing within major uptrends across all timeframes: short term (15728-20728, 1781-1934), intermediate term (15728-20728, 1678-2259) and long term (5050-17400, 728-1900).

            Volume fell; breadth was mixed.  The VIX rose fractionally, finishing within its short term trading range and intermediate term downtrend.

            The long Treasury was up, closing within its short term trading range and intermediate term downtrend.  It continues to develop a head and shoulders formation, though the right shoulder is getting a bit extended, raising the possibility that this indicator could becoming invalid.

            GLD increased, remaining above the upper boundary of a very short term downtrend---but just barely.  That doesn’t get me jiggy to own GLD especially since it is solidly within both a short and intermediate term downtrend.

Bottom line:  I thought there was a chance that stocks might be off yesterday based on a negative first reading of the January effect especially after the upbeat jobless claims report (good news is bad news)---and there was some initial sell off.  But as the day wore on, stocks managed to recoup much of their initial losses.  That suggests that not too many investors are worried about the consequences of a negative January effect; and as I noted yesterday, there really isn’t much reason to until the Averages start breaking support levels.

Until that happens, the guiding assumption has to be that the indices will continue to advance toward the upper boundaries of the long term uptrends (17400/1900).  That is not a lot of upside from current levels, so I will continue to use any advance as an opportunity for our Portfolios to take advantage of our Sell Price Discipline.

            Thoughts from Todd Harrison (medium):

            More on the presidential cycle (medium):

            A bull’s outlook (short):

    Fundamental
    
     Headlines

            Mixed data again yesterday.  Weekly jobless claims were down more than expected, giving us the second strong employment number this week.  That is great for the economy; but it still points toward the potential of tapering faster or bigger than the Markets may want.  ***Ooops, nonfarm payrolls rose a paltry 74,000 in December versus consensus of up 200,000.  Weather gets the blame. 

December retail sales were decent but largely a function of heavy promotions and a large component of nondiscretionary goods.  Further, a number of retailers guided earnings estimates for 2014 lower.  So I would rate this datapoint as mixed.

            Overseas, Chinese CPI was below estimates---a plus for those concerned about the risk of a tightening monetary policy.  The ECB left interest rates unchanged, with Draghi promising easy money for as far as the eye can see.  Finally, Japanese consumer sentiment fell for the second month in a row, not good news for Mr. Abe and perhaps his QEInfinity on steroids monetary policy.

            It was the jobless claims number that weighed most heavily on investor sentiment; so today’s December nonfarm payroll report will likely be a Market moving datapoint.  So far, good employment news has been bad Market news.

Bottom line:  the economy continues to progress in line with our forecast.  Fiscal policy remains a mess, but that is in our Models.  Monetary policy is worse; and it is here that the risk to the Market and perhaps the economy lies.

The Market risk is largely a function of extreme overvaluation and that won’t be cured by anything other than time or a correction.  Either way, I can’t emphasize strongly enough that I believe that the key investment strategy today is to take advantage of the current high prices to sell any stock that has been a disappointment or no longer fits your investment criteria and to trim the holding of any stock that has doubled or more in price.

            The latest from Bill Gross (medium):

            The latest from Barry Ritholtz (3 minute video):

            The latest from Lance Roberts (medium):

            Update on Buffett’s favorite valuation metric (short):




Steve Cook received his education in investments from Harvard, where he earned an MBA, New York University, where he did post graduate work in economics and financial analysis and the CFA Institute, where he earned the Chartered Financial Analysts designation in 1973. His 40 years of investment experience includes institutional portfolio management at Scudder, Stevens and Clark and Bear Stearns. Steve's goal at Investing For Survival is to help other investors build wealth and benefit from the investing lessons he learned the hard way.

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