Wednesday, January 22, 2014

The Morning Call---Don't forget about China

The Morning Call

1/22/14

The Market
           
    Technical

            The indices (DJIA 16414, S&P 1843) had another schizophrenic day (Dow down, S&P up), but finished within major uptrends across all timeframes: short term (15814-20814, 1794-1947), intermediate term (15814-20814, 1688-2269) and long term (5050-17400, 728-1900).

            Volume fell; breadth was mixed.  The VIX rose, leaving it within a short term trading range and an intermediate term downtrend.

            The long Treasury was up (again) on continuing strong breadth.  It remains within a short term trading range and an intermediate term downtrend.

            GLD fell, closing below its 50 day moving average (which it penetrated on Friday) and the lower boundary of a very short term uptrend.  In other words, it continues to be unable to get out of its own way.  It remains within both a short and intermediate term downtrend.

Bottom line:  the S&P still hasn’t been able to re-challenge its all time high, leaving the possibility of a double top intact.  That said, it may be a function of nothing more than a recent schizophrenic consolidation period.  The keys are (1) until/unless the S&P closes below the 1815 level at the very least and more importantly the lower boundary of its short term uptrend, there is no confirmation of a double top and (2) the Averages remain firmly within all major uptrends and that means that the trend is up and our expectations should include higher prices.  

However, if one of our stocks trades into its Sell Half Range, our Portfolios will act accordingly.

            400 days without a correction (short):

    Fundamental
    
     Headlines

            There were no US economic releases yesterday; although there was an article by Fed mouthpiece John Hilsenrath that speculated that the Fed would increase the size of the taper at the FOMC meeting next week.
I hate being on the other side of an argument with a known insider, but I would think that the recent employment and sales data would give the Fed pause before taking another step in the tapering process.

            Overseas, Chinese fourth quarter economic growth slowed---that is a positive in that it could relieve pressure on the Bank of China to tighten credit.  In the EU, German investor confidence was strong.   It seemed that these two numbers accounted for yesterday’s early Market optimism: although that didn’t last too long as several earnings (revenue) reports came in short of expectations.

            ***over night the Bank of China injected funds into the system to help alleviate the credit crunch---but to no avail, so far.

            Update on the Chinese credit problem (medium and today’s must read):

Bottom line:  yesterday’s pin action was basically non-directional as the absence of any economic news, a mixed set of earnings reports and bad weather in the northeast kept investors on the sidelines.   That said, my underlying thesis remains that stocks are sufficiently overvalued that we are facing either a prolonged period of Market stagnation or a correction.  

I can’t emphasize strongly enough that I believe that the key investment strategy today is to take advantage of the current high prices to sell any stock that has been a disappointment or no longer fits your investment criteria and to trim the holding of any stock that has doubled or more in price.
           
            More on valuation (medium):

            Goldman defends its ‘stocks are overvalued’ call (medium):
                The latest from John Hussman (medium):

                Update on Japanese QEInfinity (medium):




Steve Cook received his education in investments from Harvard, where he earned an MBA, New York University, where he did post graduate work in economics and financial analysis and the CFA Institute, where he earned the Chartered Financial Analysts designation in 1973. His 40 years of investment experience includes institutional portfolio management at Scudder, Stevens and Clark and Bear Stearns. Steve's goal at Investing For Survival is to help other investors build wealth and benefit from the investing lessons he learned the hard way.

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