Wednesday, September 11, 2013

The Morning Call--Obama's disingenuous escape

The Morning Call

9/11/13

The Market
           
    Technical

            The indices (DJIA 15191, S&P 1683) had another good day.  The S&P remained within its short term uptrend (1650-1804) and above its 50 and 100 day moving averages.  The Dow closed within its short term trading range (14190-15550), though it did manage to trade up through its 100 day moving.  It continued below its 50 day moving average.

            Both of the Averages are well within their intermediate term (14786-19786, 1573-2159) and long term uptrends (4918-17000, 715-1800).

            Volume rose; but oddly breadth deteriorated.  The VIX declined 7%.  However, it is well within its short term trading range (no hint of direction).

            The long bond was down, finishing within its short and intermediate term downtrends.  In my opinion, not a plus for stocks.

            GLD got whacked, closing right on the lower boundary of its very short term uptrend.  However, it ended the day back below the upper boundary of its very short term downtrend---not a good sign for our new position in GLD.

Bottom line: the technical health of the S&P continued to improve, as did that of the DJIA.  Nevertheless, the Dow is not validating the uptrend in the S&P and it remains below its 50 day moving average. And both of the Averages are fighting higher interest rates.  Clearly, if equities have another day or two like the last two, the Dow could swing back in line with the S&P.  For the moment, the Market remains directionless and our Portfolios remain on the sidelines.  Any up move in price into their Sell Half Range by any of our holdings will be used to lighten up.

            Sentiment summary (medium):

    Fundamental
    
     Headlines

            US economic numbers were mixed: small business confidence declined while weekly retail sales were quite strong.  Overseas it was the same story: Chinese industrial production and retail sales were better than expected, while French industrial production missed estimates badly.  Nevertheless, investors focused in on the Chinese stats and that is what drove prices up initially.
           
            The not so good news out of China (medium):

            That was followed quickly by more good news on Syria. All parties seemed to be jumping on board with the Russian proposal (international control of Syrian gas weaponry); and investors continued to react positively to the news---as they should.  I have made it clear that in my opinion this whole Syrian ‘red line’ threat was pointless, with no serious consideration having been given to any follow through but with the potential of entangling the US in a rat’s nest where we have no strategic interest, where the best thing that could happen to us is that both sides lose, but where much bigger players (Russia and Iran) do have strategic interests and could very well have been willing to make this conflict a much more painful exercise.
           
            So doing the only thing that makes sense, last night Our Leader in a speech that tests the limits of credibility and logic announced a delay in the implementation of a policy (bombing Syria) that a majority of Americans oppose.  That is the bottom line.  Over the next couple of weeks, we will most likely be subject to endless debates over political and diplomatic fine points and minutia.  But in the end, nothing will happen except the further discount of Obama’s status as a leader and the downgrading of this potential clusterf**k back to the status of a circus side show---unless, of course, our ruling class manages once again to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. 

            On a completely different subject, I must admit that I am somewhat surprised that the Market has not reacted more negatively to the parade of financial experts that have weighed in of late regarding the lack of progress in solving the ‘too big to fail’ problem with our big banks, how much financial risk is still imbedded in the system and the Fed’s role in all of this.  Monday, I linked to a John Thain interview.  Below is another with Barry Ritholtz, who wrote one of the definitive books on the 2007/2008 collapse, as well as comments from Hank Paulson and Todd Harrison, who provides a brief look at a new movie coming out on the Fed.  They all support the concerns I express weekly regarding Fed policy and the sorry state of the balance sheets of our major financial institutions. 

The Fed---money for nothing and .............. (medium):

            As a follow up to yesterday’s interview with John Thain, here is one of my favorites, Barry Ritholtz, on how little we have learned from the 2008 financial crisis.  Sad.  (4 minute video and a must watch):

            And Hank Paulson weighs in (short):

            I can only assume that as long as the Fed is pumping money into bank reserves, investors believe that they have a ‘get out of jail free’ card from the Fed to pursue asset purchases---the recent hiccups in emerging markets and bonds notwithstanding.

Bottom line: the Syrian risk continues to fade and our economy is making the kind of progress that has been built into our Economic Model.  But the time is drawing nigh for both our elected and appointed official to focus on issues in which all of us have a strategic interest, to wit, enacting policies that puts this country on a sound fiscal/ monetary path.  There will be a lot on their plates in the next 30-60 days (a budget resolution, addressing the debt ceiling, finding a workable resolution to the fiscal problems caused by the FY 2014 sequestration and implementation of Obamacare, clarifying the transition process from cheap to tight money and replacing Bernanke). 

How they do the jobs that they are being paid to perform will likely not only determine the direction of the economy but also how much investors are willing to pay for it.  Unfortunately, this country is at a point in both fiscal and monetary terms that the policy makers have few attractive choices, e.g. does congress continue to drive government spending to GDP higher or cut spending; does the Fed ‘taper’ now or wait? Whatever the answers, the US economy is in for some pain.  The good news is that we have this priced into our Valuation Model; the bad news is a majority of Market participants haven’t. 

That doesn’t mean that this country is going to hell in a hand basket.  It does mean, in my opinion, that stocks are way over valuing the likely earnings that can be produced from an economy on the current trajectory of the US.

            Ready for stagflation (medium):




Steve Cook received his education in investments from Harvard, where he earned an MBA, New York University, where he did post graduate work in economics and financial analysis and the CFA Institute, where he earned the Chartered Financial Analysts designation in 1973. His 40 years of investment experience includes institutional portfolio management at Scudder, Stevens and Clark and Bear Stearns. Steve's goal at Investing For Survival is to help other investors build wealth and benefit from the investing lessons he learned the hard way.

No comments:

Post a Comment