Thursday, September 5, 2013

The Morning Call--Obama creates a potential exit strategy


The Morning Call

9/5/13

The Market
           
    Technical

            The indices (DJIA 14930, S&P 1653) rallied yesterday.  The Dow remained within its short term trading range; while the S&P rose above the lower boundary of its short term uptrend.  I am still conflicted about the S&P short term trend.  Trading below the lower boundary of its short term uptrend for five days would ordinarily qualify as a confirmation of the negation of that trend.  However, as I have noted, during that period, there was virtually no follow through by the S&P to downside---which raises questions about the validity of short term uptrend break.  Yesterday’s bounce back above the lower boundary of that trend just confuses the issue.

            Contributing to the uncertainly, the S&P also closed back above its 100 day moving average.  It remains below its 50 day moving average; and the DJIA finished below both its 50 and 100 day moving averages.

            For the moment, I am not re-setting the trend of the S&P.  That leaves the Averages out of sync with the 50 and 100 day moving averages serving as resistance.

            Volume shrank; breadth improved.  The VIX fell but remains well within its short term trading range and directionless.  The long bond also fell, closing within its short term downtrend---which is also a weight on stock prices.

            GLD was off, but remains well above the lower boundary of its very short term uptrend.

Bottom line: there remains no clear trend in the Averages; though on balance there is more negatives at the moment than positives.  Nevertheless, as I noted in yesterday’s Morning Call, the minute to minute developments of the potential Syrian conflict are heavily influencing prices.  That leaves my conclusion unchanged: this is a Market to be avoided unless you are a skilled trader.

            Another sentiment indicator (short):
           
            Sell Rosh Hashanah, buy Yom Kippur.

    Fundamental
    
     Headlines

            Yesterday’s US economic data was neutral to positive: weekly mortgage applications were up, but the more important purchase applications were down; weekly retail sales were mixed, the US July trade deficit came in roughly as expected; the latest Fed Beige Book report was a yawner; but there was a very bright spot---August car and light truck sales were barnburners.  This data got the Market off to a good start.

            Then, Obama started ‘crawfishing’ again, this time potentially giving Himself and everyone else a way out of the Syrian mess.  In a news conference, He said that the ‘red line’ on Syrian use of nerve gas which He drew was really not His ‘red line’ (though it reality, it was.  That is why He had to play hard ass once nerve gas was used.) but rather it was the world community’s ‘red line’ (as defined by a 1925 UN treaty).  

            This did a couple of things.  Number one, it ostensively gave Obama the option to do nothing; that is, if He didn’t draw the ‘red line’, then His threat wasn’t specifically coming from the off ice of the president of the US.  So even if He does nothing, He can rationalize that He is really not backing down from a threat because it wasn’t His.  Now the world knows that Obama is a pussy and this is all bulls**t.  But this Guy is and always has been a very weak leader that values form over substance.  So the world may snicker, but it allows Him to stick His head in the sand and pretend.

More important, it also takes off the table the necessity for congress to support the power and authority of His office (i.e. it wasn’t His ‘red line’, He was just parroting the terms of certain treaties).  That allows congress to vote against bombing Syria without being an affront to His office and allows Him to self righteously condemn (as only He can do) the rest of the world for not enforcing its own treaty and then decline to act unilaterally. 

Whether any of this plays out, it does introduce a number of scenarios that don’t necessarily involve military action in Syria.  And I think this may have also played a role in yesterday’s Market advance. 

            Of course, this is just idle speculation on my part.  But I will be watching the trend of comments out of our elected representatives.  If they get more dovish or ambivalent, it is a may be a sign that they take Obama’s move as a way to exit this no win dilemma gracefully.  To which I would applaud.

Bottom line: the economy continues to improve and, if Obama is trying to create an escape hatch for Himself, then just maybe the war in the Middle East is fading as a risk.  That is all to the positive; but there remains plenty of potential bumps in the road near term, including the transition from easy to tight money, the continuing budget resolution, the debt ceiling, the kick in of 2014 sequestration and the mounting problems with Obamacare.  If the recent histories of (1) animosity within our political class and (2) the Fed’s ineptness in managing monetary policy transitions is any guide, the odds that most of these problems will be resolved responsibly are slim to none.  I could live with them if stocks not were so generously valued.

However, at the moment, equities are priced for perfection.  That is not to say that perfection won’t happen; it is to say that I am unwilling to make that bet.

            The economic issues surrounding the Syrian civil war (medium and a must read):

            The latest from David Stockman.  While I disagree with about 10% of this diatribe, it is still a must read):

            Are the BRIC’s investable (medium):

            The latest from Bill Gross (medium and another must read):

            More on valuation (medium):



Steve Cook received his education in investments from Harvard, where he earned an MBA, New York University, where he did post graduate work in economics and financial analysis and the CFA Institute, where he earned the Chartered Financial Analysts designation in 1973. His 40 years of investment experience includes institutional portfolio management at Scudder, Stevens and Clark and Bear Stearns. Steve's goal at Investing For Survival is to help other investors build wealth and benefit from the investing lessons he learned the hard way.

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