Thursday, September 12, 2013

General Mills (GIS) 2013 Review

General Mills Inc. processes and markets such well known products as Cheerios, Wheaties, Total, Chex, Betty Crocker, Bisquick, Hamburger Helper, Yoplait and Progresso.  The company has grown profits and dividends at a 9-10% pace over the last ten years earning a 20%+ return on equity.  This performance should continue as a result of:

            (1) an outstanding portfolio of fast growing brands

(2) a steady pipeline of new products which enhance sales and take market share,

(3) an aggressive cost cutting program,

(4) expansion into emerging markets which should account for 70% of food growth though 2012,

(5) acquisitions,

(6) management is committed to enhancing shareholder value via increasing dividends and share buy backs.

Negatives:

(1) GIS international exposure increases the risk of loss from currency fluctuation,

(2) during periods of economic malaise, consumers tend to trade down to generic brands,

(3) rising commodity costs.

GIS is rated A+ by Value Line, has a 47% debt to equity ratio and its stock yields 3.0%

     Statistical Summary

                Stock       Dividend         Payout      # Increases  
               Yield      Growth Rate     Ratio       Since 2003

GIS           3.0%           6%              52%              9
Ind Ave     2.3              8                  36               NA 

                Debt/                        EPS Down       Net        Value Line
                 Equity        ROE      Since 2003      Margin       Rating

GIS           47%            28%            1                 10%          A+
Ind Ave     39               21              NA               7              NA

        Chart
           
            Note: GIS stock made good progress off its March 2009 low, surpassing the downtrend off its August 2008 high (red line) and the November 2008 trading high (green line).  Long term , the stock is in an uptrend (straight blue lines); intermediate term, it is in an uptrend (purple lines).  The wiggly blue in is on balance volume.  The Dividend Growth Portfolio owns a 50% in GIS, by virtue of having Sold Half for price reasons.  The upper boundary of its Buy value Range is $29; the lower boundary of its Sell Half Range is $42.




9/13

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