Wednesday, May 8, 2013

The Morning Call---An optimist's trifecta


The Morning Call

5/8/13

The Market
           
    Technical

            Another wonderful day in stock land with the indices (DJIA 15056, S&P 1625) closing within all major uptrends (the Dow is over the upper boundary of its short term uptrend): short term (14317-15017, 1570-1644), intermediate term (13868-18868, 1472-2061) and long term (4783-17500, 688-1750).

            Volume was flat and remains anemic; breadth improved.  The VIX continues its aimless wandering within its short and intermediate term downtrends.

            GLD fell, finishing near the lower boundary of its intermediate term downtrend.  It remains above the lower boundary of its long term uptrend.

Bottom line: ‘the trend remains up.  While there are developing divergences and structural weaknesses, they clearly aren’t sufficient to overcome a solid bid side to the Market.  As long as the money keeps flowing in and investors remain immune to the fear of the downside, nothing is likely to change.

My strategy continues to be to take advantage of what I consider unwarranted optimism by lightening up on positions when the stock price trades into its Sell Half Range.  I believe that we will have a chance to buy these shares back at much lower price.’

            What is it with Tuesday’s (short):

    Fundamental

     Headlines

            Only one set of numbers in the US yesterday: weekly retail sales which were mixed at best.   On the other hand, there was another good stat out of Europe---German factory were better than anticipated; and ...drum roll...... the Bank of Australia lowered rates

            How’s that for an optimist’s trifecta:

(1) poor US data, encouraging continued Fed easing.  On the other hand, even though the weekly retail sales number is a secondary indicator, it still fits into the recent trend toward weaker data---keeping the amber light flashing.

(2) improving EU economic activity and, hence, the ‘muddle through’ scenario.  The flow of economic data out of Europe continues to improve.  It is still far too early to assume that Europe is out of the woods; but the stats just keep pointing in that direction.  This is the potential bright spot in the economic scenario.

***over night, the Chinese trade data as well as German industrial production came in ahead of forecasts

(3) yet another central bank joins the easy money race.  While investors, in general, are positively giddy about more central bank easing, it simply exacerbates a risk that is slowly but surely replacing Europe’s fiscal/banking problems as my number one concern---how can this global explosion in liquidity end well?

Small wonder investors got jiggy with it.
           
Bottom line:  the incoming data continues at odds with some of the assumptions in our Model.  US economic numbers are a bit weaker than I expected while European stats are somewhat stronger.  I am not convinced that either will ultimately turn into a trend reversal; but this data has to be respected and watched.

That said, whatever happens is going to have to be shockingly positive to get valuations to current levels.  Even if US economic growth reasserts itself and the EU heals faster than I anticipate, I still can’t get stock prices near their present altitude---so I am still be stuck with my present problem of being reasonably positive on the economic outlook but unpersuaded of current valuations.   

            More thoughts for the bulls (medium):
                
            The latest from Jeremy Grantham (medium):

            Complacency and the plunge in Bloomberg’s macro trend (short):

            The latest from Lacy Hunt (medium and a must read):





Steve Cook received his education in investments from Harvard, where he earned an MBA, New York University, where he did post graduate work in economics and financial analysis and the CFA Institute, where he earned the Chartered Financial Analysts designation in 1973. His 40 years of investment experience includes institutional portfolio management at Scudder, Stevens and Clark and Bear Stearns. Steve's goal at

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