Thursday, April 18, 2013

The Morning Call--This volatility can't be helping confidence


The Morning Call

4/18/13
The Market
           
    Technical

            After another volatile day, the indices (DJIA 14618, S&P 1553) still closed within all major uptrends: short term (14072-14761, 1538-1612), intermediate term (13746-18746, 1455-2049) and long term (4783-17500, 688-1750).  On the other hand, they remain out of sync with respect to their all time highs---the Dow having broken above its high (14190) and the S&P not (1576).  Under our time and distance discipline for a break out to new highs to be confirmed, both of the major Averages have to do so.

            Volume rose (the pattern of the last three days has been down on elevated volume, up on lighter volume, down on heavy volume---which is not a positive for stocks); breadth was down big time.  The VIX surged 18%, but remains well within both its short and intermediate term downtrends.

            GLD was up fractionally, closing again below the lower boundaries of both its short term downtrend and its intermediate term trading range---which is quite negative.  The sole redeeming feature of GLD’s otherwise abysmal performance is that it is holding above the lower boundary of its long term uptrend.

            Great explanation of what may have driven gold prices down (medium):

            Is Soros shorting gold (medium):

Bottom line:  even though the Market’s direction is clearly up at present, the volatility of the last three days is likely to have a negative impact on investor confidence.  Whether that translates into some mean reverting behavior in stocks remains to be seen.  But no matter what does happen, trying to invest in this recent buzz saw environment makes little sense. 

If equities regain upward momentum, our Portfolios will be better Sellers.  If this Market is rolling over, our cash position is going to look awfully good.

            Update on the Eiffel Tower formations (short):

    Fundamental
    
            Yesterday’s economic data was good: mortgage and purchase applications were up while the latest Fed Beige Book report was a tad more upbeat than the last.  Now both of these are secondary indicators; but a positive read on the economy is still a positive read on the economy.  These two just generate a bit less jigginess.

            Of course, there was no jigginess in Mudville.  What seemed to be driving investor concerns were fears over the global economy: (1) German auto sales were poor [and that contributed to a big down day in the European bourses which in turn infected our own Market], (2) industrial commodities are performing atrociously and (3) mounting worries over a slowdown in China.  For the moment, our economy continues to struggle along; but clearly a sick Europe and a slowing China will ultimately have their impact on forecasts.

            That said, our Economic Model already has a stagnant EU factored in; so no surprise there.  China is a different story.  I have assumed that Chinese economic growth would at least partially offset problems in Europe---enough so to keep our own economy growing at its current sub par pace.  If China rolls over, then some adjustments will have to be made to our Model.  However, as I noted in Tuesday’s Morning Call, it is a bit too soon to do that though the amber light is flashing.  

            More disturbing news out of China (medium):

Bottom line: as measured by our Valuation Model, stocks are overvalued even assuming the US economy continues to grow and Europe muddles through.  So any developing weakness in stock prices could be nothing more than mean reversion with investors using Europe/China/the Fed, etc as the excuse to sell off.  Certainly, I don’t see that anything fundamental has changed on the issues that have been negative factors in our forecast.  So as always, if a change in Market direction is in the offing, it will be more a function of perceptions than reality.  Of course, we don’t even have ‘developing weakness’ yet.

            Nevertheless, I remain quite happy with our cash position.

            Nigel Farage at his best, indicting the eurocrats (medium):

            Egan Jones lowers Germany’s credit rating (short):

            EU may be joining the easy money race (short):

     Subscriber Alert

            The stock price of CF Industries (CF-$173) has traded into its Buy Value Range.  Accordingly, it is being Added to the Aggressive Growth Buy List.  The Aggressive Growth Portfolio owns a full position in CF, so no further purchases will be made.

     Investing for Survival

            Australia, the new Switzerland (medium):




Steve Cook received his education in investments from Harvard, where he earned an MBA, New York University, where he did post graduate work in economics and financial analysis and the CFA Institute, where he earned the Chartered Financial Analysts designation in 1973. His 40 years of investment experience includes institutional portfolio management at Scudder, Stevens and Clark and Bear Stearns. Steve's goal at

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