Tuesday, April 9, 2013

The Morning Call--Could Europe be healing?


The Morning Call

4/9/13

The Market
           
    Technical

Typical of the recent trading pattern (up, down, up, down) of the Averages (DJIA 14613, S&P 1563), prices were up yesterday leaving them within all uptrends: short term (13931-14622, 1525-1599), intermediate term (13655-18655, 1448-2042) and long term  (4783-17500, 688-1750). However, they remain out of sync on surmounting their all time highs---the Dow having done so (14190), the S&P not (1576). 

Volume fell; breadth improved.  The VIX was down, finishing within its short and intermediate term downtrends.

            GLD declined, closing within its short term downtrend; but remaining above the (now in dispute) support level.

Bottom line: stocks prices remain in an uptrend.  The question is, is that coming to an end?  Given that all uptrends remain in tact, why would there even be a question?   Market internals are weakening, the S&P hasn’t even challenged its former all time high and the upward momentum in the DJIA is slowing.  So there are some telltale signs of a topping process.

That said, this will remain a hypothetical until the aforementioned uptrends start breaking down.  I stay cautious with emphasis on the sell side.

    Fundamental
    
     Headlines

            No economic news yesterday.  Indeed, it was a generally quiet day on most fronts.  Most of the media pundits argued about valuation.  And I think that is appropriate; which is to say that the key points of the fundamentals seem to have garnered a rough consensus: the economy is improving albeit grudgingly, the global central banks are printing money as fast as humanly possible and the eurocrats haven’t yet grasped the dangers of a circular firing squad. 

Bottom line: This issue is what is the above worth?  I think it less than current levels, others don’t.  Plus I am concerned about the tail risks associated with massive central bank intervention and continuing eurocrat circle jerk attempts to deal with the continent’s sovereign and bank insolvencies.

            This is a great article on the progress the ‘sick’ euro countries are making in recovery and why the risk of a crisis is diminishing.  I have to think about this; but on the surface, his argument makes sense.  I may have to scale back the magnitude of the tail risk associated with another EU crisis. (medium and today’s must read):

            I remain quite happy with our cash position.

            Cramer on the bid under the Market (medium):

            Are dividend paying stocks really a good alternative to bonds (medium):

            Update on Citi’s economic surprise index (short):

            Bail out versus bail in (medium):

            Blackrock calls for Fed to rein in QEinfinity (medium):

     Investing for Survival

One thing that did make news today was this gem from the president (short):

            This may have prompted His suggestion (short):

            Or maybe it was this: (short):

            Worried about your savings yet?




Steve Cook received his education in investments from Harvard, where he earned an MBA, New York University, where he did post graduate work in economics and financial analysis and the CFA Institute, where he earned the Chartered Financial Analysts designation in 1973. His 40 years of investment experience includes institutional portfolio management at Scudder, Stevens and Clark and Bear Stearns. Steve's goal at

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