Tuesday, March 5, 2013

TC Pipelines LP (TCP) 2013 Review


TC Pipelines LP and its subsidiaries acquire, own and manage energy transmission pipeline systems in the US and Canada. The partnership has experienced flat earnings over the past five years though that is expected to change substantially this year. In that same period, dividends have increased 5% annually and return on equity has averaged 10-15%. The company should continue to expand moderately as a result of:

(1) it is a key player in the Western Canada gas transmission market for which there is robust demand,

(2) acquisitions,

(3) its low debt to equity ratio provides financial flexibility for future acquisitions.

Negatives:

(1) declining availability of gas in its Northern Border Pipeline service area,

(2) uncertain investment environment can impact its ability to finance growth,

(3) subject to possible changes in energy regulations.

TCP is rated A by Value Line, carries a 35% debt to equity ratio and the stock yields 7.7%.

Statistical Summary

                 Stock      Dividend         Payout      # Increases  
                  Yield      Growth Rate     Ratio        Since 2003

TCP           7.7%          4%                96%               7
Ind Ave      5.8             4                    79                NA

                Debt/                         EPS Down       Net        Value Line
                Equity         ROE      Since 2003      Margin       Rating

TCP           35%           12%           3                  75%          A
Ind Ave      58              14             NA                 14             NA

     Chart

            Note: TCP stock made good progress off its November 2008 low, surpassing the downtrend off its May 2005 high (red line) and the November 2008 trading high  (green line).  Long term, the stock has struggled to hold an uptrend (straight blue lines).  Intermediate term, which is clearly the more relevant trend, it is in a trading range.  The wiggly blue line is on balance volume.  The High Yield Portfolio owns a full position in TCP.  It is also on the High Yield Buy List.  The lower boundary of its Sell Half Range in $81.


 
3/13

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