Monday Morning Chartology

The Morning Call

3/25/13

The Market

           

    Technical

      Monday Morning Chartology

The S&P remains in an uptrend in all three time cycles.  On the other hand, it has yet to confirm the Dow’s move above its previous all time high.

           

 GLD seems to be acting a bit better.  It continues to trade near the mid point of its short term downtrend.  A short term support level and a very short term uptrend continue to develop.  Note the improvement in on balance volume (wiggly blue line).

           

The VIX remains in its short and intermediate term downtrends.

         

            Update on ‘the best stock market indicator ever’:

            http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/guest/John-Carlucci-Best-Indicator-Ever-Update.php

    Fundamental

    

            Over the weekend, Cyprus and the EU came up with a bail out plan in which two large Cypriot banks will be restructured with the junior and senior creditors taking a hit (this is a positive because the rule of law has triumphed) along with depositors not covered by deposit insurance.

            All in all a decent solution as long as you are not a junior/senior creditor or a large depositor or a bank employee that will lose his/her job.  Since the Russians fall in the large depositor category (rumors are the ‘hit’ will be from 40% to 100% of their deposits), we are not yet at the final act.

            Here is Goldman’s take (medium):

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-25/goldmans-cyprus-post-mortem-and-review-forced-depost-equity-conversion

            There was also some pain in Spain (medium):

            http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324105204578380600325311568.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

            More on valuation (short):

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-24/guest-post-stocks-priced-real-gdp

            And:

            http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/guest/Bruce-Carman-130325-Earning-and-PE.php

      News on Stocks in Our Portfolios courtesy of Seeking Alpha

 

Tiffany & Co (TIF): Q4 EPS of $1.40 beats by $0.04. Revenue of $1.2B (+4% Y/Y) misses by $0.05B.

Nike (NKE): FQ1 EPS of $0.73 beats by $0.05. Revenue of $6.2B (+9% Y/Y) misses by $0.04B.

Economics

   This Week’s Data

   Other

Politics

  Domestic

Thought for the day (short):

http://cafehayek.com/2013/03/quotation-of-the-day-582.html

  International War Against Radical Islam

            Fast pass for Saudi Arabia (medium):

            http://michellemalkin.com/2013/03/22/dumb-and-dangerous-americas-fast-pass-for-saudi-arabia/

Steve Cook received his education in investments from Harvard, where he earned an MBA, New York University, where he did post graduate work in economics and financial analysis and the CFA Institute, where he earned the Chartered Financial Analysts designation in 1973. His 40 years of investment experience includes institutional portfolio management at Scudder, Stevens and Clark and Bear Stearns. Steve's goal at Strategic Stock Investments is to help other investors build wealth and benefit from the investing lessons he learned the hard way.