Wednesday, February 6, 2013

The Morning Call---Awakening? not

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The Morning Call

2/6/13

The Market
           
    Technical

            Well, so much for a change in sentiment.  The indices (DJIA 13979, S&P 1511) roared back yesterday.  While the Dow managed to spike back above the upper boundary of its short term uptrend (13273-13919), the S&P couldn’t quite get there (1442-1513)---which is about the only negative for the day.  Both of the Averages remain within their intermediate term uptrend (13287-18287, 1404-1999).

            Volume was slightly; breadth rebounded.  The VIX fell and closed within its intermediate term downtrend.

            Gold fell fractionally, but finished above the lower boundary of a very short term uptrend.  It continues to trade within a short term downtrend and an intermediate term trading range.

            Bottom line: clearly, the bulls are alive and well and aren’t hesitant to keep pumping up stock prices.  Yesterday’s pin action indicated that (1) the upper boundaries of the indices short term uptrend continue to act as a magnet and (2) the bears are not strong enough to mount even a half hearted follow through.  That keeps me convinced that 14140/1576 is a reasonable technical price objective.  Our Portfolios will continue to lighten up as equity prices move higher.

            More great Market analysis from Lance Roberts (medium and today’s must read):

    Fundamental

      Headlines

            Yesterday was definitely less eventful than Monday.  On the economic front, weekly retail sales were passable after a couple of weeks of mixed readings and the ISM nonmanufacturing index was slightly better than expected.  A positive.
            With results in from more than half of the S&P 500 companies, 69% have beaten profit expectations, compared with the 62% average since 1994 and the 65% average over the past four quarters. Sixty-six percent of companies have beaten on revenue.  Fourth-quarter earnings for S&P 500 companies are expected to rise 4.5%, according to the data, above the 1.9% forecast at the start of earnings season.
            In Europe, the EU PMI’s improved and the Italian and Spanish securities markets rebounded.  That said, the European economy as a whole and the southern EU economies in particular are nowhere near healthy nor are their banks.  This remains a negative component of our forecast.

            Obama took His fight for income redistribution to airwaves, suggesting that sequestration be postponed and substituted with smaller spending cuts and more taxes as a down payment for a budget that deals with the major fiscal issues.  He forgot to mention that He missed a deadline for His 2013 fiscal year budget and that the senate hasn’t passed a budget in four years; although He did manage to paint a dark cloud if the GOP insisted on sequestration.  Yesterday’s rhetoric is likely mild relative to the heat He will apply as March 1 (the sequestration effective date) approaches.  The republicans haven’t budged yet---‘yet’ being the operative word.  I maintain my belief in the ‘line in the sand’ thesis.

            As an aside, part of Obama’s plan is to eliminate corporate tax loop holes---with which I have no problem as long as the overall tax rate is lowered to stay competitive globally.  Here is a study on the impact of getting rid of the loop holes but not lowering the tax rate:

Bottom line:  we now know that yesterday’s pin action was indeed a one day phenomena; however, it doesn’t change my conclusion: ‘I do believe that (1) stocks are overvalued even assuming our positive outlook on continuing growth in the US and ‘muddling through’ in Europe and (2) the ‘tail risks’ associated with a financial crisis in Europe and/or the sudden unwillingness of bond investors to further indulge irresponsible global monetary policy while not quantifiable [at least by me] are much larger than current consensus seems prepared to acknowledge. Therefore, it seems reasonable to me that stocks, at a very minimum, will return to Fair Value [1406].’

            Brace for a stock market accident (medium):
    
            Speaking of which (medium):




Steve Cook received his education in investments from Harvard, where he earned an MBA, New York University, where he did post graduate work in economics and financial analysis and the CFA Institute, where he earned the Chartered Financial Analysts designation in 1973. His 40 years of investment experience includes institutional portfolio management at Scudder, Stevens and Clark and Bear Stearns. Steve's goal at Strategic Stock Investments is to help other investors build wealth and benefit from the investing lessons he learned the hard way.

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