Thursday, January 31, 2013

The Morning Call--Some good news in the GDP report

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The Morning Call

1/31/13

The Market
           
    Technical

            The indices (DJIA 13910, S&P 1501) rested again yesterday.  As a result, the S&P closed back below the upper boundary of its short term uptrend (1435-1504); while the Dow remained above its comparable boundary (13203-13858).  Both finished within their intermediate term uptrends (13254-18254, 1400-1995).

            The good news is that the Averages did fairly well in the face of a rough headline GDP number (see below).  The bad news is that the upper boundaries of the short term uptrends may have more power than first appeared; hence, they may be acting as a governor on the rate of price advance.

            Volume was up slightly; breadth was poor.  The VIX rose 7%, but is still well within its intermediate term downtrend.

                GLD moved up, closing again above the lower boundary of that very short term uptrend.  Although it remains within its short term downtrend and intermediate term trading range.

            I am not buying a direct correlation, though certainly Chinese buying had an impact on the price of gold.

            Bottom line: I remain of the opinion that the upward momentum in stock prices will carry them to at least 14140/1576.  That said, the technical evidence continues to grow that this Market rise is getting a bit long in the tooth.  Our Portfolios remain better Sellers.

            Still more on the January effect (short):

    Fundamental

     Headlines

            Economics dominated yesterday’s news cycle:

(1)    the data was a bit dismal: while the ADP private payroll report was better than expected, mortgage and purchase applications were disappointing and the initial fourth quarter GDP number was a shocker.

It was the latter that garnered most of the attention---coming in down 0.1% versus an anticipated increase of 1.0%.  However, inside the data did not look so bad.  Housing, consumer spending and business investment spending were all strong.  The weakness came from:

[a] a draw down in inventories which is actually a long term positive {assuming sales are strong---which they were},

[b]  net exports which were down as a result of the recent drought,

[c] lower government {defense} spending.  I actually look at this as good news; after all, I have been harping and harping on the necessity of reducing government spending---and we got some.  So, three cheers.  As important, the lower government spending was accompanied by still healthy housing, consumer and business investment figures---what more could we want?  While it is far too early to tell, it does, nonetheless, support the notion that cutting government spending will not negatively impact the rest of the economy as many think and may in fact help it. 

It may also address the fears that sequestration while reducing GDP could also negatively affect housing, consumer spending and business investment.  That this could produce the same fourth quarter effect {lower government spending and higher private activity} may be too much to hope for at this moment.  But I am very encouraged by this data.

      But before getting too jiggy, I need to see the impact on housing, consumption and investment of the higher taxes implemented on January 1.  Plus God only knows what the reaction of ruling class will be to the unexpected poor headline number.  If it gives them the excuse to skate on sequestration, then what I consider to be an encouraging development could turn out to be a Pyrrhic victory.
           
                        The latest from Ken Rogoff (medium):

                        More analysis of the GDP number (medium):
                        http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/GDP-Components.php

                        And (medium):
                        http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Real-GDP-Per-Capita.php

                        And (medium):
                        http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/GDP-Deflators.php

(2)    the Fed finished its latest FMOC meeting followed by the release of the current Fed policy statement---which wasn’t all that different from the prior version although it did note a pause in economic and employment growth.  Weather and other factors were blamed.  It expressed concern about downside risks; hence the Fed expects to continue its highly accommodative stance for some time to come.

While I am sure that investors are tickled pink that the presses will remain in high gear, as you suspect, I think this the bad news for the day.  Talk of a $4 trillion balance sheet by the end of 2013 is now common; and ominously, interest rates continue to inch upward.  If the bond vigilantes are starting to  re-discover their cojones and these moves anticipate higher rates, the Fed will be totally screwed---it will have to print even more money not only to pay for the budget deficit but also to pay for the higher interest costs as well as covering the capital losses [from lower bond prices] in its own balance sheet.
           
And this says nothing about what happens if a real global currency war breaks out.

                        More on the developing currency war (medium):

                        And today’s must read on the folly on our global central banks (medium):


Bottom line: if yesterday’s GDP report is a preview to the results of the sequester, then I have to be a lot  more optimistic about our outlook than I was two days ago.  To be clear, I am not saying that [a] the sequester {or any other subsequent cut in spending} will happen or [b] if it does, that the extent of any reduction will be confined solely to government spending.  I am saying that an example exists that if [a] happens, [b] could happen.  And that is more than we had. 

None of this alters the assumptions in our Models today; but now we at least have a glimmer of hope that if the political class will just do its part to return to fiscal sanity, then the shorter term economic consequences of that action may not be as painful as I thought. 

If only.

            Spain now fighting its own financial scandal (medium):

            The latest on Italy’s banking problem (medium):




Steve Cook received his education in investments from Harvard, where he earned an MBA, New York University, where he did post graduate work in economics and financial analysis and the CFA Institute, where he earned the Chartered Financial Analysts designation in 1973. His 40 years of investment experience includes institutional portfolio management at Scudder, Stevens and Clark and Bear Stearns. Steve's goal at Strategic Stock Investments is to help other investors build wealth and benefit from the investing lessons he learned the hard way.

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