Tuesday, December 4, 2012

The Morning Call--Yesterday's pin action was especially weak

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The Morning Call

12/4/12
The Market
           
    Technical

            The indices (DJIA 12965, S&P 1409) traded lower yesterday.  They closed (1) below their 50 day moving averages [13175/1418], (2) within their new short term trading ranges whose lower boundaries are 12460/1343 and whose upper boundaries [initial candidates] are 13302/1424 and (3) within their intermediate term uptrends [12865-17865, 1359-1954]. 

The pin action incorporated an ‘outside’ down day, that is it traded above the high of the prior trading day then closed below the low of the prior trading day---a technical pattern that is considered negative.

            Volume declined; breadth weakened.  The VIX rose, finishing above its 50 day moving average (not good) but well within the zone between the upper boundary of its short term downtrend and the lower boundary of its intermediate term trading range.

            GLD was up but still closed below its 50 day moving average but above the lower boundaries of its short term uptrend and its intermediate term trading range.

            Bottom line: the inability of the Averages to penetrate their 50 day moving averages on an ‘outside’ down day is not an encouraging sign, technically speaking.  If there is  any follow through to yesterday’s down move, it would set the 13302/1424 level as the upper boundaries of Averages new short term trading ranges.  With the lower boundaries are 12460/1343, the risk reward within this new range is not great from current prices.  To be sure, the risk/reward is great when measured off their intermediate term uptrends; however, with the preponderance of those trend zones well above Fair Value, I am paying more attention to those short term trading ranges. 

            Equity performance in December (short):

    Fundamental
    
     Headlines

            Yesterday’s economic news was generally good: US November PMI, October construction spending, monthly auto sales plus China’s November PMI.  Unfortunately, there was one bad number---the November ISM manufacturing index declined---and this was the stat that investors chose to focus on.  Hence, the day got off to a bad start.  However, in total this data basically reflects our forecast; so I see little about which to be upset.

            We also got some positive movement on the fiscal cliff, i.e. the republicans responded to Obama’s first offer by suggesting a far smaller tax increase and some cuts in entitlement spending.  Forgetting for the moment the gap between the bid and offer here, the important thing is how the dems respond; that is, if there is some give from the original Obama proposal, that would be a plus; if not, then, it could get rough going into Christmas. ***last night the White House rejected this proposal out of hand.  Oh, no  

Bottom line:  Obama’s response to the GOP offer notwithstanding, I continue to believe that we are going to get a resolution to the fiscal cliff.  However, that is not to say that I think the likelihood of a grand bargain has improved.  Our political class is demonstrating their sincere (that’s a joke) effort to avoid the cliff.  They will work and work, posture and posture and at the last minute agree to some deal that will be sure to get a one inch headline in the WSJ while nailing our knees to the floor. And life will go on with ever increasing spending, taxes, regulation and money supply.

Since that scenario is in our Models, a price decline to below Fair Value would prompt purchases of those stocks on our Buy Lists.  Unfortunately, no progress is being made to resolve the financial problems in Greece and Spain.  Meanwhile, a big chunk of the continent is slipping into recession which could raise the risk of other countries joining the aforementioned on the ‘critical’ list.  The risk associated with this  unquantifiable downside to a eurocrisis gives me a stomach ache.  Hence, I want more price cushion than just Fair Value before I get serious about putting our cash to work.

Charts on market valuation from Doug Short:

The latest from Pimco(all the below are must reads):

Bill Gross on the US economy:

Mohamed El Erian on Europe:

                        Meanwhile over at the Fed (short):


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