Wednesday, December 19, 2012

The Morning Call--Is Santa Claus coming to town?

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The Morning Call

12/19/12

The Market
           
    Technical

            Santa Claus is coming to town.  The indices (DJIA 13350, S&P 1446) had another great day.  The S&P closed above the upper boundary of its short term trading range (12460-13302) for the second day. In addition, it is on the cusp of confirming the break on the distance element of our time and distance discipline.  For the break of the short term trading range to be confirmed, the S&P must close above the upper boundary today.

The Dow also finished above its comparable boundary (12460-13302) for the first day, putting the Averages back in sync.  The DJIA must finish above its upper boundary two more days.  If successful, then both indices will re-set to short term uptrends with interim resistance at 13682/1474.

            Volume was up big; breadth was strong.  The VIX fell, closing below its 50  day moving average and between the upper boundary of its short term downtrend and the lower boundary of its intermediate term trading range.

            Stocks in overbought territory (short):

            GLD got whacked hard, closing below the lower boundary of its short term uptrend.  If this break is confirmed (two more days), our Portfolios will lighten up on its investment position.

Bottom line: investors are clearly feeling their Wheaties.  With the Dow above the upper boundary of its short term trading range and the S&P scheduled to confirm the break its comparable boundary at the close today, the Santa Claus rally appears in full swing.

That said, as I noted yesterday, if the current upswing continues, our Portfolios will likely chip away at several stocks that are at critical technical levels.

            Insiders are selling (short):

            Note on the Santa Claus rally (short):

    Fundamental
    
      Headlines

            Yesterday news flow was a duplicate of Monday’s:

(1)     we got one secondary stat: weekly retail sales were good---but that is not going to alter anyone’s forecast,

(2)     the rest of the day, the fiscal cliff negotiations were center stage. Boehner presented what he is terming Plan B, i.e. renew the Bush tax cuts for those earning less than $1 million with no demands for spending cuts.  Those would be dealt with  in the upcoming debt ceiling debate.

Pelosi, Reid and Obama all said ‘no way Melvin’ to this Plan; although that might not stop the republicans from presenting the legislation.  The GOP has apparently set Thursday as a drop dead date for a compromise on Plan A.  If they get none, then the House votes on Plan B and it is up to Obama to sign it or not.  Either way this is likely to heighten the animosity in DC; and God only knows what happens when the debt ceiling talks commence in 2013.

In the meantime, we received some details of Obama’s proposed spending cuts which as you might expect employed the usual Washington creative accounting.

                We haven’t heard much out of Europe lately.  As a reminder of how great things are, yesterday the ECB began again accepting Greek bonds as collateral (remember their current rating connotes serious risk of bankruptcy).

                And Berlusconi says Italy will be forced to leave the EU (medium):

                Meanwhile in Japan, new elected PM Abe is taking fiscal irresponsibility to a whole new level.

                Kyle Bass on Japan (short):

Bottom line: while yesterday’s fiscal cliff talks don’t appear to offer much progress, at least both sides are still talking.  Plus, investors appear positively giddy over it.  However, if Boehner is retreating to the Plan B mentioned above, it seems clear when, as and if a compromise can be reached in 2013 it will an infinity more painful process than the current skirmish and will likely not better than our expectations: a half baked agreement that will do little to nothing to offset the headwinds of an irresponsible fiscal policy.  That means continued sluggish below average economic growth which at today’s prices is more than adequately valued.

To be clear, I can get Fair Values above current levels but that would assume responsible fiscal policy (a grand bargain) as well as a sane monetary policy (turning off the printing presses). 

Even if Europe were suddenly less of a risk, that wouldn’t move the Valuation needle a centimeter.  That said, it would alter the need for a cash position as high as our Portfolios are now carrying and would lead to them Adding to those stocks on our Buy Lists.  But in no case would they be chasing stock prices higher.

            Central banks risk market crash (medium):

            On the same theme, a detailed analysis of the dilemma the Fed is creating for itself (medium and today’s must read):

            And last but not least from Rob Arnott (short):

            The latest from Jeff Gundlach (medium and also a must read):
            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-18/jeff-gundlach-fiscal-cliff-circus-and-why-investors-should-hold-cash-through-2013



Steve Cook received his education in investments from Harvard, where he earned an MBA, New York University, where he did post graduate work in economics and financial analysis and the CFA Institute, where he earned the Chartered Financial Analysts designation in 1973. His 40 years of investment experience includes institutional portfolio management at Scudder, Stevens and Clark and Bear Stearns. Steve's goal at Strategic Stock Investments is to help other investors build wealth and benefit from the investing lessons he learned the hard way.

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