Friday, November 16, 2012

The Morning Call--Will the intermediate term uptrend boundary hold?

The Morning Call

11/16/12

The Market
           
    Technical

            The indices (DJIA 12542, S&P 1353) meandered lower yesterday, remaining below the lower boundaries of their newly re-set short term downtrends (12631-13133, 1367-1416).  The Dow also finished below the lower boundary of its intermediate term uptrend (12761-17761) for the second day; the S&P remains above its comparable level (1345-1941), though clearly it is inching closer.  This leaves the Averages out of sync on their intermediate term uptrends.  The importance of this is that under our technical discipline a break of this support level must be confirmed by both of the indices. 

            Volume fell; breadth was mixed but the flow of funds indicator was horrendous.  The VIX was up, closing within the two narrowing zones marked on the upside by the upper boundary of its short term downtrend and on the downside by (1) the lower boundary of its very short term uptrend and (2) the lower boundary of its intermediate term trading range.

            GLD fell, remaining below its 50 day moving average and above the lower boundaries of its short term uptrend and its intermediate term trading range.

How gold got to be money (4 minute audio):

Bottom line:  stocks just can’t get out of their own way.  It seems like every morning, they rally, it looks like an oversold bounce is starting, and then sellers come in and drive prices lower.  The key technical factor right now is whether or not the lower boundaries of the Averages’ intermediate term uptrends can hold.  I have opined that the bears should meet some stiff opposition before successfully challenging these support levels.  That said, the Dow is already half way through the time element of its challenge and it hasn’t so much as hiccupped. 

If the break does eventually get confirmed, additional support exists at 13304/12022 and 1292/1266.

(1) with the S&P now approaching Buy territory, I am making my list and checking it twice (2) however, I will also focus on those stocks that are near breaking key support levels but are a long way from their Buy Value Range.

            Bullish sentiment continues to decline (short):

    Fundamental
    
      Headlines

            Yesterday’s economic data contained more Sandy related influences: the NY Fed manufacturing index was down, though not by much; while the Philly Fed index was positively horrible. Weekly jobless claims were also very disappointing.  However, they all showed signs of Sandy’s impact.  October CPI, both the headline and ex food and energy numbers were up modestly, in line with forecast.  So despite a big day in stats, we really learned nothing new.

            Investors spent the rest of the day  obsessing about the fiscal cliff and war in the Middle East.  With respect to the former, there was no new news but the viewing public was inundated with opinions from every expert known to man and some that aren’t. 

Is political uncertainty killing investment return (medium):

The importance of monetary versus fiscal policy (medium):
           
            What Bernanke haft wrought (medium):

In Israel, troops appeared to be posturing for an invasion of Gaza---and oil responded as expected.

Bottom line: despite the fact that much of this week’s economic data is being distorted by Sandy, there is nothing to suggest that the economy is not continuing to grow.  However, its sustainability is now in question as a result of (1) the fiscal cliff---which I continue to believe won’t happen; but till it does, investors will likely stay negative, (2) war in the Middle East---on which I have no feel for the calculus that the major players use in plotting their strategies.  But it clearly is not a positive for oil or stock prices, and (3) the ongoing clusterf**k in Europe.  While (1) and (2) commanded the headlines yesterday, this problem is still the 800 pound gorilla in the room.

As the axiom states, markets hate uncertainty; and we have a snoot full of that right now.  Unfortunately, all of the above three factors will likely remain unresolved over the near term. Clearly some of this is now reflected in lower stock prices; though I doubt that it all is.  We are nearing a point where our Portfolios start to nibble---I just want to see how the current assault on the lower boundaries of the indices intermediate term uptrends goes before firming up our Buy strategy.

The good news is that our Portfolios have a lot of cash and the number of values is growing as reflected in our Buy Lists. 

            More on the bond bubble (medium):

            Update from Guggenheim Partners (medium):

            If I have heard argument that ‘you have to own equities because bonds yield nothing’ once, I have heard it 100 times.  I have always had a problem with investing in the least worse alternative, even if cash yields little.  This analysis provides the math for that argument (medium):

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