Monday Morning Chartology

The Morning Call

11/5/12

The Market

           

    Technical

       Monday Morning Chartology

            The S&P re-set its short term trend to a trading range (brown lines) from an uptrend; but remains within its intermediate term uptrend.  Additional support is being provided by the 200 day moving average (wiggly red line).  Resistance exists at the 50 day moving average (1433) and the former resistance turned support now resistance (1422).  Note that on Friday, the S&P rallied early in the day to the 50 day moving average and fell back dramatically.

            GLD suffered some serious whackage on Friday, pushing off the upper boundary of a newly formed very short term downtrend (black line).  It remains above the 200 day moving average (wiggly red line), the lower boundary of its short term uptrend (brown line) and the lower boundary of its intermediate term trading range (purple line).  I think it reasonable to assume that it will test at least the short term uptrend.  If it holds, our Portfolios will re-Add their trading positions.

            The VIX bounced up off the lower boundary of a very short term uptrend  on Friday---and dramatically so.  It remains in the broad but ever narrowing zone between the upper boundary of its short term downtrend (brown line) and the lower boundary of the intermediate term trading range (purple line).  This indicator remains a neutral.

            The Presidential Predictor (short):

            http://blog.stocktradersalmanac.com/post/SPY-SPX-Votes-Romney-In-October-But-Best-6-Months--2013-Outlook-Reserved

            Update on ‘the best stock market indicator ever’ (medium):

            http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/guest/John-Carlucci-Best-Indicator-Ever-Update.php

    Fundamental

    

            Draghi’s latest problem (medium):

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-11-04/spanish-banks-may-face-17-billion-margin-call-ecb-found-lie-about-collateral-haircut

     

            Update on this quarter’s earnings ‘beat’ rate (short):

            http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2012/11/2/earnings-beat-rate-gets-better.html

  News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

HollyFrontier (HFC) declares special dividend of $0.50/share. For shareholders of record Nov 15. Payable Nov 30. Ex-div date Nov 13.

Chevron (CVX): Q3 EPS of $2.69 misses by $0.20. Revenue of $56B  misses by $7.8B.

Sysco (SYY): FQ1 EPS of $0.49 misses by $0.01. Revenue of $11.1B (+4.7% Y/Y) in-line.

Economics

   This Week’s Data

   Other

Politics

  Domestic

The downside to the privatization of public works (medium):

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2012/11/shock-doctrine-american-style-hurricane-sandy-devastation-used-to-push-for-sale-of-public-infrastructure-to-investors.html

  International War Against Radical Islam

            The Institute for National Security Studies simulates an Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear facilities (medium):

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-11-04/israeli-war-game-does-not-see-attack-iran-starting-world-war-iii