Monday, October 15, 2012

The Morning Call_Monday Morning Chartology


The Morning Call

10/15/12

The Market
           
    Technical

      Monday Morning Chartology

            The S&P (1428) was down again Friday.  It has now negated the 1442 support level.  Friday was the first day to break the lower boundary of its short term uptrend (1434-1526).  Our time and distance discipline is now operative.  Other support exists in the current vicinity: (1) the former resistance now support level of 1422 and (2) the 50 day moving average (1427---the wiggly red line).  It is likely that 1434, 1427 and 1422 will all act in concert and the S&P will either hold them all or bust through them all.



            GLD (170.0) appears to be consolidating.  As long as it holds the 168.4 level (black line), this consolidation will be under control and not of concern.  A break would cause some heartburn.  Nevertheless, it remains well above the lower boundaries of its short term uptrend and the intermediate term trading range.



            ECB’s Weidmann on gold (medium):

            The VIX is also consolidating near the lower end of its intermediate term trading range and appears to be attempting to decisively break and hold above its 50 day moving average (wiggly red line). At the moment, I would rate this indicator as a neutral.  If it breaks well above the 50 day moving average, it would be negative.  A move above the upper boundary of its short term downtrend would be really, really negative.



            Update on ‘the best stock market indicator ever’ (medium):

    Fundamental
    
            Why America needs to embrace the fiscal cliff (medium):

            The correlation between the ECRI and the S&P (medium):

       News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
 
Economics

   This Week’s Data

            The October New York Fed manufacturing index came in at -6.16 versus expectations of -3.0 and September’s reading of -10.41.

            September retail sales were up 1.1% versus estimates of up 0.7%; ex autos, they were up 0.9% versus forecasts of up 0.5%

   Other

            Consumer confidence (short):

            Debt and growth (medium):

            The problem with a bottomless pit of money (medium):

            QEIII has done little for housing (medium):

Politics

  Domestic

  International War Against Radical Islam

            Tensions mount between Turkey and Syria (medium):





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